Latin America Economics Weekly

Milei’s one-year anniversary, Brazil’s jumbo rate hike

Argentinian President Javier Milei's first year in office has been much more successful than we (and other analysts) had expected but, absent a weaker exchange rate, it will be difficult to return the...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil overheating, Mexico’s minimum wage, Bonilla quits

Data out of Brazil this week suggest that the strength of domestic demand is causing the trade surplus to erode, which goes some way in explaining the real's poor performance. But the more important...

6th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico & the trade war, Brazil’s fiscal malaise

Mexico appears to have found the off-ramp after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from the country on day one of his presidency. Even so, given Mexico’s...

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s challenging budget, G20 summit

The sharp reduction in the budget deficit envisaged in Mexico’s draft budget for 2025 will have been welcomed as a sign that the new Sheinbaum administration is taking fiscal discipline seriously. But...

22nd November 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Marco Rubio, Latin America & fracturing

US President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of Mark Rubio as secretary of state suggests that – after years of neglect – Latin America will play a more prominent role in US foreign policy in the next...

15th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s lessons from Trump 1.0, Argentina’s hopes

One explanation being put forward to explain the relatively modest moves in the Mexican peso since Trump's election victory is that the country may be spared many of Trump’s tariffs threats (as...

8th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook

Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued...

1st November 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Fiscal dominance, Mexico’s Trump risk, Uruguay votes

Hawkish comments from Brazil's central bank amid concerns that the economy is overheating and that the narrative that ‘fiscal dominance’ may take hold suggest that Copom is likely to step up the pace...

25th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s spending review, Argentina’s surplus, Chile rates

A proposed “spending review” in Brazil would, if approved by President Lula, ease fears about the state of the public finances and reduce the chances of aggressive rate hikes by the BCB. Elsewhere...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Sheinbaum’s first two weeks in office, Banxico minutes

President Claudia Sheinbaum's first two weeks in office suggest that she will seek to maintain Mexico’s close geopolitical alignment with the US. But on the domestic front, there have been more...

11th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

BanRep’s fiscal worries, Chile’s deficit, Brazil’s upgrade

The decision by Colombia’s central bank to maintain rather than step up the pace of easing at this week’s policy meeting suggests that officials there are increasingly worried about the fiscal...

4th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico in Trump’s firing line, Colombia’s budget drama

Donald Trump's threats this week to impose tariffs on imports of cars and agricultural equipment from Mexico highlight how big a risk his return to the White House would pose to Mexico’s free trade...

27th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s budget, Brazil’s hike, new macro forecasts

The Argentine government's ambitious 2025 budget plans unveiled this week are underpinned by very optimistic economic projects and meeting the 'zero deficit' target will be challenging. And at the...

20th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Amlo’s last hurrah, oil price drop, Fed easing and Lat Am

Outgoing Mexican President Amlo’s controversial judicial reform has been one of the key drivers of the weakness in the peso and we think there’s still some downside risk to the currency, especially if...

13th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

The BCB’s upcoming U-turn

The strength of Brazil’s economy shown in the Q2 GDP figures released this week means the central bank (BCB) now looks set to raise interest rates, having cut rates as recently as May. Still, monetary...

6th September 2024 · 6 mins read