Latin America Economics Update Nudging up our forecast for Peruvian rates The fact that the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) raised interest rates by 25bps last night, rather than the 50bps that had seemed possible, suggests that policymakers will continue to tighten... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Still no sign of a ceasefire in Brazil's 'currency war' If recent evidence is anything to go by, Brazil’s latest effort to stem the rise in the real is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the markets. While rising inflation should mean that the... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican manufacturers buoyed by demand from the US The increase in the Mexican IMEF manufacturing index last month suggests that the industrial sector has continued to benefit from stronger demand in the US. But while the Mexican industrial sector... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: 'Two-speed' growth concerns have not gone away The sharp jump in Brazilian industrial production in February, coupled with the rise in the March’s trade surplus, should help to ease concerns about the unbalanced nature of recent growth and will no... 1st April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian markets fall as election race takes unexpected twist Presidential election races in Peru have a history of being unpredictable. What initially seemed to be a three-way battle to succeed the outgoing Alan Garcia, now appears to be a five-way tussle ahead... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation spike has further to run The recent spike in global commodity prices is a much bigger problem for policymakers in Latin America than it is for policymakers in the developed world. This is for two reasons. First, food and... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nudging up our forecast for Colombian rates We are nudging up our end-year forecast for Colombian interest rates to 4.5% (from 4.0%) in response to the recent spike in global commodity prices. 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is BANXICO preparing to hike interest rates? The minutes from this month’s interest rate setting meeting in Mexico, released earlier today, were unambiguously hawkish. But while the chances of an interest rate rise in the next few months have... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: growth strong, but increasingly unbalanced Q4 GDP data show that the underlying pace of growth in Chile has started to ease. Nonetheless, it is the unbalanced nature of growth – and principally the strength of domestic demand – that is the big... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Concerns over inflation to push Peruvian rates higher Last night the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.75%, as expected. With the outlook for inflation deteriorating interest rates look set to rise further over the... 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico's job recovery yet to feed into higher wages Mexico’s labour market is on the mend. But while employment has picked up and the quality of new jobs seems to be improving, this has yet to translate into a pick-up in pay growth. 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation pressures are building, but commodity shock temporary The recent pick up of commodity prices, notably food, will probably drive inflation higher than we had previously expected this year. The good news is that the effects of the commodity price shock... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the winners and losers from the oil price spike The recent spike in oil prices will impact on different economies within Latin America in different ways. Although it is difficult to say with any great precision, the biggest winner is likely to be... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian consumers still going strong Brazil’s economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in Q4 but the more worrying news is that the drivers of growth are becoming increasingly unbalanced. 3rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bounce in Brazilian industry not a game changer The modest rebound in Brazilian industrial production in January is good news and the surveys suggest that output picked up further over the course of last month too. But the bigger picture remains... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Consumers continue to drive growth in Chile Last month’s slowdown in Chilean retail sales growth, coupled with a pick-up in the manufacturing sector, will help to ease mounting concerns about the unbalanced nature of recent growth. But in... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
