Latin America Economics Update Peru: in no rush to follow Brazil’s lead on rates Peru’s central bank (BCRP) kept its benchmark lending rate at 4.25% last night. While it appears to have dropped its tightening bias, we believe that it is premature to forecast any policy easing over... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: IMEF manufacturing survey not as promising as it seems While the Mexican IMEF manufacturing index bucked the global trend and increased in August, there is no hiding from the weak outlook for the economy. With GDP growth set to disappoint, we expect... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation edges further above target Data released this afternoon confirm that Brazilian inflation rose further above the central bank’s target in August. The news will do little to calm fears that, following last week’s surprise... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Q2 GDP data solid, Q3 looking dire Brazil’s economy grew by a solid if not spectacular 0.8% q/q in Q2, but leading indicators suggest that it will struggle to expand at half that pace in Q3. 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico most likely to follow Brazil’s lead? The surprise decision to cut Brazilian interest rates earlier this week has raised the prospect of rate cuts elsewhere in Latin America. If the developed world does eventually slide into recession... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian rates? After last night’s surprise 50bps cut in interest rates, further monetary easing in Brazil will depend on how events elsewhere in the global economy play out. We doubt that rates will be cut as... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will the next move in Mexican rates be down? Above-target inflation means that it would require a major shock to the global economy for the Mexican central bank to cut interest rates this year. But with growth set to slow by more than most... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru slows but solid fundamentals remain intact Peru’s economy witnessed a moderation of growth in Q2 as investors reacted to the emergence of new President Ollanta Humala. While growth will cool further in the near-term on a weaker external... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Global uncertainty prompts pause in rate hikes The Central Bank of Colombia’s (BANREP) decision to hold interest rates at 4.5% was prompted by the recent uncertainty in the global economy. Rate hikes may resume once the current market turmoil has... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican economy set for extended period of slow growth Data released this afternoon show that the Mexican economy registered decent growth in the first half of this year. Nevertheless, with the news from the US going from bad to worse, and domestic demand... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile shifts to neutral on softer global growth prospects There were no surprises from Chile’s Central Bank (CBC) last night as the benchmark rate was maintained at 5.25%. With global demand set to slow but not collapse altogether, the likelihood of further... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s resilient growth faces tougher times ahead Today’s Chilean GDP figures confirmed that the economy remained in good health over the second quarter. Even so, we are likely to witness a weaker performance from Q3 on the back of deteriorating... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuelan gold rush a sign that the dollar drought is back The Venezuelan President, Higo Chavez, has announced that he intends to nationalise the country's gold industry and repatriate gold reserves from abroad. With the dollat drought that... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: here comes the slowdown Brazilian growth appears to have eased a little in the second quarter of this year and, thanks to a weak end to Q2 and the recent turmoil in markets, looks set to slow yet further in Q3. The question... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates on hold until 2013 The recent turmoil in the financial markets has re-shaped the debate on how far interest rates may need to rise in Latin America. We still expect one or two more hikes in Peru, Colombia and perhaps... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Growth slowing but not collapsing Peru’s growth rate cooled over the second quarter of this year as weak domestic industry continued to drag on growth and investment suffered from electoral uncertainty. Going into Q3 we expect... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
