Latin America Economics Update Rates on hold as Chile’s economy regains some momentum Chile’s central bank (CBC) kept interest rates unchanged at 5.0% last night in response to a small rebound in domestic economic activity and a temporary recovery in global market sentiment. The latest... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Making sense of Latin America’s inflation conundrum Recent data have given mixed messages on the outlook for inflation in Latin America. On the one hand, inflation seems to be firmly on a downward path in Brazil and Peru. Yet the drop in Chilean... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will Chavez get stuck in the MUD? The opposition coalition in Venezuela (MUD) has selected Henrique Capriles Radonski to face Hugo Chavez in October’s presidential election. While the outcome of the vote is too close to call at this... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: central bank may pause before cutting rates again Signs that Chile’s economy regained some momentum heading into 2012 should prompt the central bank (CBC) to keep rates on hold at this month’s meeting. Nevertheless, if the bright start to the year in... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal reforms still key to preventing excessive FX appreciation On past form at least, the latest set of measures announced by Colombia and Brazil to curb currency strength are unlikely to have a lasting impact on foreign exchange markets. Instead, fiscal reforms... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay: threat of overheating to recede this year Although symptoms of overheating remain evident in Uruguay, these concerns should take a back seat in 2012 as inflationary pressures fade and demand from Brazil and Argentina slows. The key point is... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry finding its feet The rise in January’s manufacturing PMI adds to recent evidence that Brazil’s economy has turned the corner. We expect interest rates to be lowered by a further 100bps to 9.5% over the next couple of... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates still likely to fall this year The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) last night surprised the market once again by hiking interest rates by 25bps to 5.0%. But while this latest decision has cast some doubt over view on interest... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s two-speed economy likely to struggle in 2012 Growing imbalances in the drivers of Chilean growth leave the economy vulnerable to a deterioration of its terms of trade, particularly via falling metals prices, over the year ahead. With this in... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: time to face the ugly truth on inflation? The IMF’s forthcoming consultation with Argentina on a new inflation methodology seems unlikely to succeed where previous missions have failed. But with balance of payments strains growing, the allure... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Savings hold the key to dealing with falling commodity prices The recent rebound in commodity prices has eased concerns about growth outlook for Latin America. But the key point remains that the windfall from high prices has been spent, rather than saved... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s Humala makes a solid start; bigger challenges ahead Initial fears that the election of Ollanta Humala would mark a departure from the orthodox economic policies of his predecessor, Alan García, have proven to be wide of the mark. Even so, satisfying... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian growth easing, not overheating Following break-neck Q3 GDP growth in Colombia, there have been some concerns that the economy is overheating. But the recent activity data suggest that the pace of growth is now easing, while... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will China pull the rug from under Latin America? This is the first edition of our new monthly publication Latin America Watch. This will analyse major talking points in the region and preview key data and events. In this issue we look at the impact... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Few surprises as BCB signals further easing to come There were few surprises from Brazilian policymakers last night as they cut interest rates by 50bps to 10.50% and signalled further easing to come. Despite tentative signs that the economy has picked... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: further policy stimulus on the cards as growth eases Data released today provided further evidence of a moderation in Peru’s economic activity in late-2011. Going forward, growth is likely to slow further, but ample space for policy stimulus will... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
