Latin America Economics Update Counting the cost of Argentina’s trade barriers Protectionist trade controls in Argentina are already taking a toll on growth in neighbouring countries, with Paraguay and Uruguay hardest hit. In the longer-term, however, it may be Argentina that... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry to outperform In contrast to most other emerging markets, the Mexican IMEF manufacturing survey rose in April. With the relatively cheap peso maintaining the competitiveness of exports and demand from the US... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian manufacturing suffers a relapse April’s manufacturing PMI survey for Brazil contains little in the way of good news. Not only does the drop in the headline index suggest that industrial output is falling once again, but the forward... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Old concerns re-emerge as Peru’s recovery gains pace An improvement in the global backdrop helped Peru’s economy to gather pace in Q1. This has led to the re-emergence of some familiar concerns over the strength of domestic demand and credit growth... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tweaking our interest rate forecasts We are making some small tweaks to our forecast for interest rates in Latin America. If the global economy weakens later this year, as we expect, it is still likely that most central banks in the... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s economic ‘model’ living on borrowed time Last week’s news that Argentina is to nationalise YPF has helped to deflect attention from further signs that the economy is slowing sharply. A growing dependence on temporary fixes to prop up an... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine FDI: is there life after YPF? History suggests that the nationalisation of YPF may do little to deter FDI in Argentina’s energy sector. Nevertheless, we suspect that it will have a more significant impact on investment flows into... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: PRI consolidates its lead The latest opinion polls suggest that not only does the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto have a healthy lead in the race to July’s presidential election, but that his party may also take control of Congress... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s interest rate floor revisited The decision earlier this week by Brazil’s central bank (BCB) to cut interest rates once again – and signal further easing ahead – has revived talk about a “floor” on interest rates in Latin America’s... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How is growth shaping up in Latin America? It was beginning to feel like somebody had turned the clock back twelve months. With the first quarter of 2012 bringing a renewed sense of calm to global markets and a rebound in activity across the... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian rates? The decision by the Central Bank of Brazil last night to cut interest rates by 75bps to 9% was widely expected. Instead, the critical issue for investors is whether this marks the end of the current... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile, Peru signal near-term rate change unlikely Both Chile and Peru kept interest rates unchanged in April and signalled that moves in either direction are unlikely in the near-term. Further ahead, if we are right in expecting the global economic... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit growth still uncomfortably strong The recent slowdown in Brazilian bank lending highlights the unsustainable nature of rapid credit growth in parts of Latin America. Credit risks are greatest in Argentina and Venezuela, while the... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil returns to (unbalanced) growth Having stagnated over the second half of 2011, the early signs are that Brazil’s economy grew by around 1% q/q in the first quarter of this year. But while Brazil’s return to growth is clearly good... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Balanced growth suggests Mexico will continue to outperform While Brazilian GDP growth has outstripped that of Mexico in recent years, it has been very unbalanced. That has left Mexico better placed to weather any external shocks. As a result, we expect Mexico... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean economy not yet out of the woods As the most open and commodity-dependent of the major Latin American economies, Chile benefited from an improvement in global conditions in Q1. The road ahead will not be a smooth one however and, if... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
