Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns subsiding in Latin America In line with our forecast, inflation has eased across most of the region in 2012 as the effects of last year’s food price shock work their way out of the annual comparison. We expect this trend to... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Q1 GDP dragged down by weather-related effects A weather-related collapse in agricultural production is the main reason for Brazil’s desperately weak growth in the first quarter of this year. These effects will be temporary and should reverse over... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peso driven by risk appetite not politics The latest opinion poll in Mexico suggests that the left-leaning Andrés Manuel López Obrador has made a late charge ahead of July’s presidential election. That has coincided with a sharp sell-off of... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil interest rates: falling further for longer Last night’s decision by the Central Bank of Brazil to slow the pace of interest rate cuts suggests that we are getting close to the end of the easing cycle. Nonetheless, we continue to expect the... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is Argentina headed for a fresh currency crisis? Argentina’s ample foreign reserves and tight capital controls mean that the government will not be forced into allowing the peso to devalue sharply in the near-term. That said, the current managed... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economy warming up, not yet overheating A strong recovery in investment spending has helped to boost Peru’s economy so far this year. Despite concerns from some quarters about the pace of domestic demand growth, we think that the threat of... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Checking up on our equity market forecasts Our previous analysis, suggesting that Brazilian and Argentine equities would be most vulnerable to a general spike in risk aversion, has been borne out in the recent sell-off. Mexican markets, on the... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina edging closer to recession We were one of the first forecasters to predict a recession during the Fernández government’s second term. Even so, the extent of the recent slowdown has been greater than even we had anticipated, and... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Pre-election spending deepens structural problems in Venezuela The recent sale of debt by the Venezuelan authorities will help to bolster economic growth ahead of October’s presidential election. But the fact that the debt issuance has effectively been monetised... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What should we expect from first quarter GDP in Brazil? We think that first quarter GDP growth in Brazil will be somewhat stronger than the monthly economic activity indicator produced by the central bank (BCB) suggests. But there is no sign yet of a much... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strong start to the year in Chile unlikely to last The Chilean economy registered strong growth in Q1, but we doubt that the impressive performance can be maintained. With copper prices already down by about 10% so far this month, and likely to fall... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spanish banking links revisited The direct exposure of Latin American banks to the deepening crisis in Spain is not as great as it seems at first sight. Even so, there are at least three ways in which the region’s banks could be hit... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican economy well placed to weather external shocks Mexican Q1 GDP growth was not only stronger than expected, but the drivers of the increase were broad-based. Although the economy may lose some of its steam over the coming quarters, it is well placed... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From currency wars to interest rate wars Not content with waging a “currency war” against the rest of the world, Brazil’s government is now doing battle with its own banks over the high interest rates charged on loans to consumers and... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America currencies battered by flight to safety Renewed fears about the future of the euro-zone have sparked a retreat from all risky assets in recent days, and Latin American currencies have been no exception. For now, the risks remain skewed to... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Opening up Mexican oil sector could pump growth The emergence of a political consensus in favour of opening up the oil industry in Mexico has increased the likelihood that the winner of July’s presidential election will take steps to increase the... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
