Latin America Economics Update Uruguay: persistent inflation leaves policymakers in a bind Structural rigidities mean that inflation will be slower to fall back in Uruguay than in the rest of the region this year. As a consequence, policymakers have less space to support growth via monetary... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Industrial slowdown could soon spread to Mexico The latest fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI suggests that, despite a sharp drop in the currency over the past three months or so, producers in Latin America’s largest economy are still feeling the... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Case for interest rate cuts is building in Colombia The deterioration in the outlook for Colombia has forced us to review our interest rates forecast. With the economy slowing more abruptly than we had expected, the rate cuts that we had pencilled in... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strains begin to emerge in Ecuador’s growth model Ecuador’s headline GDP numbers give a somewhat misleading impression of the true health of the economy. A failure to accumulate savings during a run-up in oil prices means that the dollarised economy... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela heading for recession in 2013 as oil prices tumble The recent sharp drop in oil prices spells danger for Venezuela. The government may be able to muster sufficient funds to prop up the economy this year. But if oil prices continue to fall and remain... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: further policy easing expected this year The consensus view that the current strength of domestic demand rules out rate cuts in Chile looks to us to be fundamentally misplaced. Instead, in the absence of fresh rises in metals prices... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peña Nieto still in the driving seat Enrique Peña Nieto of the PRI remains on course to register a comfortable victory in Sunday’s Mexican presidential election. But with the PRI now looking unlikely to win a majority in Congress there... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pushing down our forecasts The fact that our forecasts for Brazilian growth were already at the very bottom of the consensus range means that we have not had to make significant adjustments in light of weaker than expected... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian economy slumped in Q1 The Colombian economy seems to have hit a brick wall in Q1. While it is better placed than most in the region to withstand the turbulence from the euro-zone crisis, we are revising down our GDP growth... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policymakers have space to support growth The authorities in most Latin American countries have space to loosen policy in the event of a sharp slowdown in global economic growth. Indeed, we expect to see policy easing in most economies over... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina's economy shudders to a halt in Q1 The latest data show that the health of Argentina’s economy has gone from bad to worse in recent months. While the official statistics are largely discredited, we estimate that GDP contracted in Q1... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s exports take a turn for the worse A recent drop in regional export growth can be attributed to a number of factors, of which slowing Chinese commodity demand may be the most prominent. We expect export revenues to come under further... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Intervention unlikely to significantly weaken peso Increased intervention by the Colombian authorities in the foreign exchange market may halt the appreciation of the peso, but it is unlikely to significantly weaken it. Instead, a drop in commodity... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How real is the threat of protectionism? Concerns that Latin America might be spiralling towards a new era of protectionism have emerged in 2012. But while it is true that the region as a whole has seen an increase in protectionist trade... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Too soon to sound the all-clear on Colombian credit growth While overall credit growth in Colombia is slowing, consumer lending remains uncomfortably strong. The deepening crisis in Europe will probably prevent policymakers from raising rates over the next... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm policymakers content to play waiting game on rates Today’s decisions by Peru and Mexico to leave interest rates unchanged support our belief that, in the near-term, most of the region’s policymakers will await clearer evidence on the health of the... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
