Latin America Economics Update Peruvian monetary policy bias gets a little tighter Peru kept rates on hold last night, but a moderate tightening bias may emerge in the months ahead. As it happens, we suspect that rates will remain unchanged for the rest of 2012 as a stronger growth... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: second-half recovery looks like wishful thinking Despite government efforts to stimulate the economy, there is scant evidence of a rebound in Argentine growth. Rampant inflation is eating into real wage growth and squeezing household spending, while... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry set to slow by year-end Mexican industry remains in good shape for now, but forward looking indicators suggest that activity is likely to slow towards the end of the year. This supports our view that GDP growth will slow... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil manufacturing still stagnating The Manufacturing PMI survey for Brazil continued its steady improvement in August, but remains at levels broadly consistent with a stagnation in industrial production. To compound matters, last month... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil held back by supply constraints The Brazilian economy should fare better in the second half of this year, but we doubt that any rebound will be as brisk as policymakers expect. Indeed, with supply constraints holding back growth, we... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: modest recovery to keep rates lower than most expect The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) lowered interest rates by a further 50bps last night and hinted that the end of the current easing cycle may now be very close. We think that the consensus expectation... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BANREP to continue cutting as growth slows There has been some improvement in the outlook for the Colombian economy in recent weeks, but interest rates will probably still fall further. Indeed, with the euro-zone crisis set to deepen and... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: growth strong, but becoming unbalanced While Peru’s economy held up better than most of its peers in the first half of this year, the drivers of growth are becoming increasingly unbalanced. With domestic demand starting to show signs of... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile will struggle to maintain current pace of growth Chile’s economy surpassed expectations in the first half of this year but a period of slower growth now beckons. We think that weaker domestic demand will reduce the pace of GDP growth to a below... 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican economy heading for a softer patch The Mexican economy slowed in the second quarter of this year, and growth is likely to ease further over the next 6-12 months as the external environment deteriorates. Even so, in relative terms at... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil takes a (small) step in the right direction Measures unveiled by the Brazilian government this afternoon are good news insofar as they will help tackle some of the supply side problems that are holding the economy back. But any impact will be... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update FX intervention back on the agenda as industry struggles Barely three months have passed since a bout of global market jitters sent policymakers scrambling to protect their currencies, but in some countries the pendulum has already swung back towards... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: don’t bank on a rapid rebound The rapid turnaround in fortunes for Brazil’s economy has provoked much head-scratching from policymakers and investors alike. We think the key point is that the slowdown in growth owes as much to... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean growth to slow as consumer spending boost fades The resilience of private consumption has been the key reason why Chile’s economy has outperformed its larger neighbours in recent months. But we doubt that the current pace of household spending will... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lower commodity prices would expose the region’s laggards The whole of Latin America would be worse off as a result of lower commodity prices, but sharp falls would exacerbate clear divisions in the growth outlook within the region. Chile, Colombia and Peru... 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still stuck in a rut The modest increase in industrial output in June does not alter the fact that Brazil’s economy and its manufacturers in particular are still struggling. Further stimulus measures seem likely over the... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
