Latin America Economics Update Ecuador's oil-fired boom running out of steam The latest data confirm that Ecuador’s recent commodity boom has faded in 2012. With elections looming early next year, the main risk is that attempts to revive growth via looser fiscal policy will... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Labour market reforms to help Mexican industry to outperform The announcement of labour market reforms in Mexico is a step in the right direction and should help to raise productivity growth over the coming years. That, along with Mexico’s already strong... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates have further to fall in Colombia The Colombian central bank’s (BANREP) decision to keep interest rates on hold does not necessarily signal the end of the easing cycle, but it does suggest that further cuts may be punctuated by pauses... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Manufacturing PMI adds to signs of a turnaround in Brazil The pick-up in September’s manufacturing PMI adds to recent evidence suggesting that policy stimulus is starting to take effect in Brazil. We suspect that the turnaround in the real economy will... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguayan rate hike will do little to tame inflation The Uruguayan Central Bank’s decision to hike interest rates by 25bps is unlikely to do much to tackle stubbornly high inflation. Strong price pressures are largely due to structural rigidities in the... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico hedges its bets, again The Mexican government’s decision to hedge its oil revenues for next year will keep the fiscal position on a stable footing in the near-term. Nonetheless, a heavy reliance on oil revenues casts doubt... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Soybeans paper over cracks in Argentina’s growth model The rise in soybean prices since early June will limit any further downside to Argentine growth but is unlikely to set the economy up for the rapid rebound that many are predicting. In the absence of... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican credit growth to support outperformance In contrast to much of Latin America, which has undergone a credit-fuelled boom in recent years, bank lending in Mexico has been more restrained. As a result, while many countries in the region are... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian growth not as strong as it seems Second quarter GDP data from Colombia are not as strong as they seem at first sight. Almost all of the pick-up in growth to 1.6% q/q was driven by a sharp rise in construction output, which tends to... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Pace of credit growth still a cause for concern Latin American credit growth has slowed a little over the past few months, but remains uncomfortably strong in a number of places. We suspect that the biggest threat to financial stability in the... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil "QE" debate masks deeper policy challenge Claims that large-scale foreign currency purchases have caused the Brazilian Central Bank to unwittingly engage in a form of quantitative easing are wide of the mark. But it does seem that during 2010... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What does QE3 mean for Latin America? It is not clear that the first two rounds of QE by the Fed provided much of a boost to financial markets in Latin America and we doubt that a third dose of the same medicine will be any different. So... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Easing of global tensions to delay rate cuts in Chile With external risks receding, the likelihood of near-term Chilean rate cuts has fallen. Even so, we remain sceptical about the chances of a sustained recovery in global growth and are sticking to our... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at regional growth 2012 has been a year of mixed fortunes for Latin America’s largest economies. In Chile and Peru, growth has bounced back following a minor wobble in late 2011 and both countries are currently... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia's Q2 GDP puzzle It is difficult to square the recent statement by the Colombian Finance Minister, Mauricio Cárdenas, that the economy grew by 4.7% y/y in Q2 with the latest activity data. The release of the official... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tariff cuts to keep Brazilian inflation from accelerating According to our estimates, the cuts in electricity tariffs announced by Brazil’s government last week should broadly offset any pick-up in food inflation that is likely to follow the recent spike in... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
