Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Q3 GDP reinforces limits of consumption-led growth Today’s disappointing third quarter GDP data suggest that despite substantial policy stimulus the Brazilian economy is struggling to get going. We expect growth to remain lacklustre over the next year... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Less to Chile’s manufacturing surge than meets the eye The sharp pick-up in Chilean manufacturing growth in October gives a misleading impression of the true health of local industry. What’s more, to the extent that there has been a rebound in... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil central bank remains in dovish mood The decision by Brazil’s central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at a record low of 7.25% was expected, but the accompanying statement supports our view that they will remain at their current... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexico: trading places We expect the Mexican economy to outperform by recent standards over the next couple of years. By contrast, growth in Brazil – which until now has been the star performer out of Latin America’s two... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian easing cycle not yet over Colombian interest rates will probably fall further next year as external headwinds cause GDP growth to slow. By contrast, a weaker global economy could be helpful for Peru, where the latest economic... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US court ruling calls Argentina's bluff on holdout debt Yesterday’s ruling by a US judge implies that if Argentina continues to play hardball on its holdout debt it will find itself in technical default within a matter of weeks. This may not be the... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Labour market reforms boost medium-term outlook Mexico’s labour market reforms are unlikely to lead to a swift acceleration in GDP growth in the very near-term. But with the re-election of the PRI seemingly having ended the political deadlock that... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: solid Q3 growth driven by domestic demand Chile’s economy posted another quarter of solid GDP growth in Q3, as an acceleration of consumption and investment offset export weakness. But a sharp rise in the current account deficit suggests that... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico slowing but still likely to outperform Mexico’s economy slowed by more than expected in Q3 and the latest monthly activity data suggest that growth in Q4 is likely to be even weaker. This should end speculation that the central bank might... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru still among region’s fastest growing economies September’s activity data show that Peru remains among the region’s fastest growing economies and it seems that GDP probably grew by 6.5% y/y in Q3. We expect Peru to be one of Latin America’s best... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Nov.) The Capital Economics Argentina Activity Indicator suggests that Argentina’s economy pulled out of recession in Q3 and is on course to register modest growth in Q4. But this turn-around has been... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Few options left to plug holes in Venezuela's balance of payments A combination of quick-fix remedies may enable the Venezuelan economy to withstand the loss of exports revenues if oil prices fall over the next couple of years. But with the authorities running out... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: in search of investment-led growth Data released later this month are likely to show that after having stagnated for much of the past year, Brazil’s economy roared back to life in Q3 on the back of substantial policy stimulus. But... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: further tightening to come via reserve requirements Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru provided further evidence that policymakers are not considering rate hikes despite vigorous domestic demand and credit growth. Instead, concerns over the... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bank failures reflect previous financial excesses The recent seizure of a handful of small Brazilian banks and a Colombian brokerage underline the extent of financial excesses in parts of the region in recent years. While there may be additional bank... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Making sense of the Andes construction boom Increased savings and investment levels have fuelled a surge in construction activity in Latin America’s Andean economies, helping to raise their long-run growth potential. But in a few countries... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
