Latin America Economics Update Latest devaluation won't cure Venezuela's economic ills The Venezuelan authorities bowed to the inevitable late on Friday and devalued the bolivar fuerte. Although this should help to ease some of the strains in the public finances, it won’t do much to... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: interest rate change still looks a distant prospect The latest data do little to change our view that Peruvian interest rates are going nowhere this year. Persistent concerns over the strength of the sol mean that policymakers are far more likely to... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation: from bad to worse Brazil’s inflation data are going from bad to worse. Headline inflation rose to a 12-month high of 6.2% last month and is likely to remain above 6% for at least the first half of this year. The... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s labour market puzzle The most puzzling aspect of Brazil’s poor economic performance of the past 18 months is that it has come alongside an improvement in the labour market. We think the explanation lies in Brazil’s low... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fading credit boom takes the shine off Latin America Signs that Latin America’s lending boom has faded support our belief that credit can’t continue to be as big an economic driver as in the recent past, and we expect GDP growth to ease this year... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: still no sign of a pick-up in investment The stagnation in Brazilian industrial production in December means that the sector contracted once again in the final quarter of last year. What’s more, the drop in capital goods output suggests that... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: equity outperformance unlikely to be sustained The recent rally in Argentine equities stands in stark contrast to a falling foreign currency bond market this year. A weak bond market performance is largely explained by a US court case which has... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to remain lower for longer The slowdown in Colombian growth has been driven as much by structural as by cyclical factors, and suggests that interest rates could remain low for an extended period. We expect at least one more... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Dec.) The Capital Economics Argentina Activity Indicator shows that Argentina’s economy continued to recover in the final quarter of 2012. Even so, we estimate that GDP growth was close to zero for the year... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A new front in the "currency war" An improvement in risk appetite since the turn of the year has supported further gains in Latin American financial markets. But with the good news has come renewed upward pressure on the region’s... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Are we really on the verge of interest rate cuts in Mexico? The dovish tone of the statement that accompanied last week’s decision by the Mexican central bank to keep interest rates on hold has fuelled speculation that policy could soon be eased. Growth has... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bright start to the year as global tensions ease This is the first edition of our new monthly Latin America Markets Monitor. The purpose of this publication is to analyse the developments in local markets over the past month and give an update on... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rising inflation narrows space for further easing A recent pick-up in inflation has reduced the space for further policy easing in Brazil, and we expect the Selic rate to remain at 7.25% until at least mid-year. Further ahead, if we are right to... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to expect from Peru's central bank in 2013 The effectiveness of Peru’s benchmark interest rate as a policy instrument is constrained by high levels of foreign currency lending and concerns over the strength of the sol. Further increases in... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall further as growth falters Record levels of foreign direct investment into the commodities sector suggest that Dutch Disease will continue to drag on the Colombian economy this year. We expect policymakers to react with another... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation could rise above 6% The rise in Brazilian inflation last month is particularly worrying since it came despite a moderation in food inflation. With plans to cut electricity tariffs now under threat from a drought that has... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
