Latin America Economics Update Brazilian consumers starting to feel the strain The recent slump in retail sales in Brazil probably overstates the true weakness of consumer spending. Nonetheless, putting to one side the volatility of the monthly data, there are signs that Brazil... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: further evidence of a faltering recovery The drop in the manufacturing PMI for April adds to evidence that Brazil’s recovery has faltered in recent months and is another reason to think that the current monetary policy tightening cycle will... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Can we trust Chile's inflation data? There appears to be some truth to claims that discrepancies in Chile’s consumer price data have lowered inflation artificially. Even so, the overall impact on headline CPI has been relatively small... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mining stocks take a hit Latin American equities have mostly sold off over the past month, compounding an already weak start to the year. Hardest hit have been the large mining firms based in the Andes, many of whom appear to... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates on hold for foreseeable future The Colombian government’s stimulus package may boost industry at the margin, but it is unlikely to solve the problem of an overvalued peso and widening economic imbalances. As a result, we doubt that... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates on hold for the foreseeable future We suspect that the Mexican central bank (BANXICO) is set for another prolonged period of inactivity. High inflation will prevent additional rate cuts in the near term, while a rebound in economic... 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What do lower copper prices mean for Chile? The recent falls in global copper prices add further weight to our belief that GDP growth in Chile will be slower than most expect this year. Even so, this is unlikely to be a disaster for the economy... 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico set for a first half slowdown The softer tone of recent economic data, coupled with signs that support for the government’s reform programme may be fraying, have dented some of the optimism over the outlook for Mexico. Even so... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Mar.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator shows that while GDP growth accelerated in Q1, the underlying pace of economic activity remained lacklustre. Moreover, the very latest data suggest that the recent... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Region increasingly vulnerable to lower commodity prices The slump in commodity markets last week has raised questions over how exposed Latin America is to a period of lower prices. While the risks vary from country-to-country, the bigger picture is that... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update China's slowdown: who is most vulnerable? The past week has seen renewed concern that a slowdown in China will drag on growth in the rest of the emerging world, including Latin America. We think these concerns are justified. But while Latin... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil tightening cycle to be smaller than most expect The decision by Brazil’s central bank to raise interest rates by 25bps – as opposed to the 50bps that was priced into the market – suggests that the tightening cycle is likely to be less aggressive... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico reform programme takes shape The Mexican economy has slowed since the start of the year, taking some of the shine off of one of Latin America’s more positive growth stories. Nonetheless, we expect the economy to rebound later... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Maduro's victory could herald period of instability in Venezuela Despite hopes for a new pragmatism, there is little evidence to suggest that Nicolas Maduro’s victory in yesterday’s Venezuelan presidential election will herald the dawn of an era of improved... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile, Peru to extend long pause on interest rates The central banks of Chile and Peru left their respective policy rates unchanged last night and offered little to suggest that a near-term rate move is on the cards. In the case of Chile, though, it... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest inflation rise tips balance in favour of Brazil rate hike Brazilian inflation breached the upper bound of its target range last month, tipping the balance in favour of a hike in the benchmark Selic interest rate at next week’s COPOM meeting. Nonetheless, it... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
