Latin America Economics Update No sign of a rebound in Latin America manufacturing in May May’s manufacturing surveys suggest that the Brazilian and Mexican manufacturing sectors both weakened further last month. But while Brazilian industry will probably continue to struggle over the... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Growing risk of balance of payments crisis in Venezuela The Venezuelan economy may already be in recession and we continue to expect GDP to contract by 1% this year. With the authorities running out of hard currency, and oil prices unlikely to rebound over... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin American equities underperform The recent weakness of Latin American stock markets has continued unabated in May, with returns well below those of developed and emerging market equity benchmarks. Going forward, we expect stocks to... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil ups the ante in fight against inflation Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50bps last night, sending out a strong message that it has not gone soft on inflation. Further hikes are possible in the months... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More needs to be done to rebalance Brazilian economy The strong performance of Brazilian investment in Q1 is promising, but it will have to be maintained for a sustained period in order to significantly ease the economy’s supply constraints and... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Apr.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator shows some improvement in April and has prompted us to nudge up our 2013 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%. Even so, growth remains slow by the standards of recent years and... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican current account deficit not a concern... yet The fact that the Mexican current account deficit has doubled over the past year is not as alarming as it appears. The deficit remains small and there are no signs of a consumer import binge... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: region's growth star losing its lustre The weakness of today’s Peruvian GDP data supports our belief that the economy is entering a phase of permanently slower growth as the mining boom of the past decade fades. Ample scope for a policy... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean GDP growth moderates in Q1 Chile’s economy stumbled in Q1 as investment spending slipped back from the robust rates of the past few quarters. With copper prices now falling and credit conditions tightening, GDP growth is likely... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico still on course to outperform Brazil this year Q1 data revealed that the Mexican economy expanded at its slowest annual rate since emerging from recession in 2009, but we suspect that the slowdown was just a blip rather than the start of a trend... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile prepares the ground for rate cuts later in the year The Central Bank of Chile (BCC) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.0% last night, however the accompanying statement was a little more dovish in tone than in recent months. We continue to... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: time to come clean on inflation? Argentina remains on a collision course with the IMF over the accuracy of its consumer price data. The Fund has threatened to impose sanctions if corrective measures are not taken by 29th September... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency to play bigger role in Mexican interest rate decisions The Mexican economy has hit a soft patch in recent months, but we would caution against being too pessimistic. Growth is likely to accelerate in the second half of the year as inflation pressures... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates to stay on hold for the rest of this year Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru offered little to suggest that policymakers are considering a near-term change in interest rates. Going forward, we expect the monetary policy bias to shift... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will Brazil’s oil output reach its potential? Brazil is unlikely to meet its ambitious targets for oil production, but crude output could still increase by at least one million barrels per day from current levels by 2020. This would add to... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation edges to within target range The drop in Brazilian inflation last month was a bit smaller than expected but still sufficient to bring it back within the central bank’s target range. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to fluctuate... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
