Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s recovery fizzles out in Q3 The sharp pick-up in Brazilian growth in the second quarter of this year seems to have fizzled out in the third quarter. Indeed, it's possible that GDP data due to be released early next month will... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What will Bachelet 2.0 mean for Chile? This weekend’s Chilean Presidential Election may go down as the most one-sided affair in recent memory, with former president Michelle Bachelet set to sweep to a second term in office. But while the... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The worst is now behind Mexico The Mexican economy has had a year to forget, but the worst should now be behind it. While GDP growth may struggle to top 1.2% this year, we expect it to accelerate to over 4% y/y in 2014-15. This... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru follows Chile’s lead with surprise rate cut Peru surprised markets with an interest rate cut last night, becoming the latest in a line of Latin American central banks to launch into easing mode in 2013. Although the timing of yesterday’s rate... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling food inflation but core concerns persist in Brazil Slowing food inflation dragged headline inflation in most of Latin America last month, but that masks significant differences in the underlying outlook for inflation within the region. While inflation... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s industrial recovery likely to outshine Brazil’s October’s manufacturing PMIs rose to exactly the same level in both Brazil and Mexico. But of the two economies, we suspect the recovery is more likely to be sustained in Mexico. 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Low inflation to delay Colombian interest rate hikes The monetary easing cycle in Colombia appears to now be over but, by the same token, interest rate hikes are probably still some way off. We expect rates to remain lower for longer than most expect... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Sep.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator points to decent growth for Argentina’s economy in Q3. However, this is partly the result of a further loosening of the public purse strings in the run-up to last... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican central bank signals end of the easing cycle The Central Bank of Mexico (BANXICO) lowered interest rates to a new record low today but its accompanying statement gave a heavy hint that this would be the last cut in the easing cycle. With the... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real has further to fall The decision by Brazil’s central bank to respond to what has been a relatively modest rebound in the real over the past month by scaling back some of its support for the currency suggests that... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Surge in Argentine equities is not all good news Several recent developments, including the growing prospect of a political regime change, have combined to send Argentine asset prices soaring. But gains in Argentina's equity market are also... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Debt overhang a risk on horizon for parts of Latin America Lending growth has continued to cool in most parts of Latin America over the course of 2013. Although the credit boom of the past decade has yet to be reflected in a significant rise in default rates... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is Mexico losing its fiscal discipline? Plans to run a substantially wider budget deficit in 2014 have raised concerns that the Mexican government is losing fiscal discipline. But while a spending splurge is a major risk to an otherwise... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates as economic slowdown takes hold While the timing of last night’s interest rate cut in Chile was a little unexpected, it nonetheless confirms our long-held belief that the central bank would begin trimming its benchmark rate by the... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weak activity data point to another Mexican interest rate cut The continued disappointing performance of the Mexican economy makes it is increasingly likely that last month’s interest rate cut was not a one-off. We have now pencilled in a 25bp reduction to 3.5%... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rebound in retail sales not as impressive as it first seems The sharp pick-up in Brazilian retail sales over the past couple of months has fuelled hopes that the country’s consumer-led growth model has kicked back into gear. We’re not so sure. While spending... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
