Latin America Economics Update Mexican interest rate cut is probably a one-off We do not think that today’s unexpected interest rate cut by the Mexican central bank signals the onset of an aggressive easing cycle. Indeed, with forward-looking indicators suggesting thateconomic... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s industrial recovery built on weak foundations Brazil’s beleaguered manufacturing sector came back from the dead to give the economy a muchneededboost in Q2. But hopes for a sustained recovery in industry this year are likely to bedisappointed. In... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: solid start to Q3 could delay monetary easing Today’s IMACEC activity indicator revealed that Chile’s economy picked up pace at the start of Q3. This is unlikely to signal a turn in the economic cycle following two quarters of slowing growth, but... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian and Mexican industry trading places The latest manufacturing PMI survey for Brazil suggests that, having been responsible for stronger-than expected GDP growth in Q2, industrial production is likely to weaken again in the second half of... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dovish statement to temper expectation of rate hikes in Colombia The dovish tone of the Colombian central bank’s monetary policy announcement supports our view that interest rates will remain lower for longer than most expect. We would not rule out further rate... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil unlikely to sustain rapid GDP growth Strong second quarter GDP growth and further signs of rebalancing in the Brazilian economy are good news. But with consumption set to remain weak and domestic savings low, we continue to expect GDP... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates to rise by less than market expects Brazil’s decision to hike interest rates by a further 50bp last night will have been bolstered by the extent of the recent slide in the real. But the rise in market rate expectations over the past... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Don’t be fooled by Q2, Venezuela is still vulnerable to a crisis Surprisingly strong Q2 data have left Venezuelan GDP on course to grow by 0.5% this year, but severe underlying problems in the economy have not been solved. If oil prices fall over the coming years... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Jul.) The threat of a fresh sovereign debt default continues to cast a long shadow over Argentina, following last Friday’s US Appeals Court ruling. But in the real economy things are looking somewhat... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rebound in Peruvian growth unlikely to be sustained Peru’s economy picked up pace in Q2, but the scope for a further acceleration of GDP growth from here looks extremely limited. In contrast to the consensus, we believe that the trend will be towards a... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil FX intervention plan looks big by EM standards The $60bn currency intervention programme announced by Brazil late last night represents one of the boldest attempts yet by an EM central bank to shore up its currency following the rout of recent... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies back in the firing line Latin America has not been spared in the latest emerging market sell-off, with currencies and bonds tumbling over the past few weeks. However, in contrast to May’s sell-off, equity markets have so far... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican economy to recover from bad year Weak Q2 GDP data was the last thing that Mexican markets needed after the rout of the past few days. That being said, we suspect that Q2 will mark the low point for the economy and that growth will... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: how will policymakers respond to market rout? The sell-off in the Brazilian real over the past month has triggered a sharp upward revision in market expectations for interest rates over the next year. In this month’s Watch we explain why... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean growth settling down to slower trend Today’s GDP data confirm that Chile’s economy is cooling and is likely to settle at a slower trend pace in the coming years. Given the current resilience of domestic demand, we do not foresee a... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean central bank bides its time over rate move Yesterday’s central bank meeting in Chile revealed that policymakers are taking a cautious approach to changes in interest rates despite evidence of a slowing economy. We remain comfortable with our... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read