Latin America Economics Update A sluggish end to another disappointing year for Brazil The release of retail sales data for December allows us to have a first stab at estimating growth in Brazil the final quarter of last year. We reckon that the economy expanded at an annual rate of... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA can’t keep up intervention for long Despite the recent calm, the continued decline of Argentine foreign exchange reserves suggests that it is only a matter of time before the BCRA is forced to let the peso fall again. We continue to... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No evidence that weaker currencies are fuelling higher inflation Inflation was lower-than-expected across much of Latin America last month, which may help to dampen fears that weak currencies will fuel higher inflation. Despite this, another 50bp interest rate hike... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: BANREP to allow further peso weakness In contrast to other parts of the emerging world, Colombian policymakers have welcomed the recent depreciation of the peso with open arms. We suspect that a further decline in the peso would be... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s economy slows sharply at end of 2013 Activity data released today suggest that Chile’s economy slowed sharply in the final months of last year. Growth in Q4 as a whole may have slipped to just 2.7% y/y – its slowest rate in almost four... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More reasons to expect Mexican industry to outperform January’s manufacturing surveys add to the evidence that Mexico will outperform Brazil over the coming months. While Mexican manufacturing growth is on course to accelerate towards 5% y/y, there is... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will market turmoil trigger interest rate hikes? The recent market turmoil increases the likelihood of another 50bp interest rate hike in Brazil, but policymakers elsewhere in the region are unlikely to tighten monetary policy unless the currency... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela is unlikely to follow Argentina’s lead The parallels between the current economic situations in Argentina and Venezuela only go so far. While both economies have been ravaged by rampant inflation in recent years and haven depleted their... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where next for the Argentine peso? The recent market turmoil increases the likelihood of another 50bp interest rate hike in Brazil, but policymakers elsewhere in the region are unlikely to tighten monetary policy unless the currency... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A sluggish start to 2014 Latin American financial markets have had a soft start to 2014, with currencies continuing to fall against the US dollar, benchmark equities declining and the regional EMBI bond yields rising. Looking... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update 2014: a stellar year for Mexican industry The decline in Mexican industrial production in November will test the patience of even the biggest Mexico bulls. Nonetheless, with US demand going from strength-to-strength, in this Watch we explain... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: rate cuts to be less aggressive than the market expects Rising inflation and a large current account deficit suggest that Chilean interest rates will not be cut as aggressively as the market anticipates this year. We continue to expect 50bp of rate cuts to... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil central bank signals slower pace of tightening The decision by Brazil’s central bank to raise interest rates by 50bp to 10.5% was in line with our forecast but against the consensus, which had expected a smaller 25bp increase. As it happens, the... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate cut still on the cards in Peru this year The Peruvian Central Bank (BCRP) left interest rates on hold last night, but with growth now settling at slower rates we think that policy will be eased this year. Concerns over the strength of... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico revving up to overtake Brazil The contrasting performances of the automotive sectors in Brazil and Mexico last year give an indication of the outlook for the region’s two largest economies. Booming vehicle sales in Mexico suggest... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Devaluation through the back door The Venezuelan government’s re-introduction of SICAD foreign exchange auctions amounts to yet another devaluation of the bolivar. But with the authorities unlikely to present a lasting solution to the... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
