Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation not as alarming as it appears The sharp rise in regional inflation over the past year is starting to cause concern in some quarters. But a closer look reveals that the increase has been due to a jump in inflation in just two... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Structural change in China: who is most vulnerable? The past week has seen renewed concern that a slowdown in China will drag on growth in the rest of the emerging world, including Latin America. We think some of these concerns are justified. But while... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Creaking current account points to default One year after the death of Hugo Chavez, the former Venezuelan President’s legacy of fiscal largesse and rampant inflation has left the economy on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. With... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: peso weakness unlikely to trigger interest rate hikes In contrast to several other emerging markets (EMs), Colombian policymakers have continued to refrain from taking steps to prevent the peso from weakening. As such, unless the currency begins to... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Outlook brightening for Mexican manufacturers Manufacturing PMIs fell in both Brazil and Mexico last month. But while we expect growth in Brazilian manufacturing to remain sluggish for the foreseeable future, we continue to expect Mexican... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: stronger growth in Q4 unlikely to be sustained Fourth quarter growth in Brazil was stronger than even we had expected, but was driven by a rebound in exports that will be difficult to sustain over the coming quarters. We continue to expect the... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Calm returns to Lat. Am. markets Following the turmoil experienced during the first few weeks of this year, financial markets across much of Latin America have stabilised over the past month. In most countries, bond yields have... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: GDP growth picks up but devil is in the detail Peru’s economy picked up pace in the final quarter of last year. But the improvement in the headline GDP figure masks concerns about the underlying balance of growth. While domestic demand remains... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican growth close to bottoming out The slowdown in Mexican GDP growth to 0.7% y/y in Q4 means that the economy grew by just 1.1% in 2013 – its weakest performance since 2009, and its second weakest performance since 2002. Nonetheless... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates and signals further easing to come The Central Bank of Chile (BCC) cut interest rates last night and signalled that further easing is possible in the months ahead. However, with inflation likely to edge up over the coming months, we... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s wasted decade Concerns about widening current account deficits have been a key factor driving the recent turbulence in financial markets in Latin America. But while the deterioration in the current account... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Feb 14.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator (AAI) suggests that the economy grew by around 3% y/y in the final quarter of last year – broadly unchanged from the pace of growth in Q3. But this pre-dates last... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: no rate cuts for now Despite the recent economic slowdown, high inflation and a widening current account deficit mean that the Peruvian Central Bank will probably have to keep monetary conditions tighter than they would... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A sluggish end to another disappointing year for Brazil The release of retail sales data for December allows us to have a first stab at estimating growth in Brazil the final quarter of last year. We reckon that the economy expanded at an annual rate of... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA can’t keep up intervention for long Despite the recent calm, the continued decline of Argentine foreign exchange reserves suggests that it is only a matter of time before the BCRA is forced to let the peso fall again. We continue to... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No evidence that weaker currencies are fuelling higher inflation Inflation was lower-than-expected across much of Latin America last month, which may help to dampen fears that weak currencies will fuel higher inflation. Despite this, another 50bp interest rate hike... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
