Latin America Economics Update Return of investment to boost Mexican GDP growth Mexican investment has been weak for the past two years, but we do not think that the economy is heading for a Brazilian-style capacity crunch. Business investment has been relatively buoyant, and... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia Election Watch – Santos on course for re-election A victory for Juan Manuel Santos in next month’s Colombian presidential election may be welcomed bythe markets, but it is unlikely to herald the beginning of structural reforms. As such, with... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update External vulnerabilities mean weak growth, not crisis We have been warning for a very long time that the recent period of strong growth in Latin America has been built on shaky foundations. With external vulnerabilities mounting, several countries in the... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rates on hold – some small cuts possible this year Peruvian interest rates were left unchanged at 4% last night and we think that high inflation and a large current account deficit mean that there is little room for aggressive easing this year as... 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Mexico inflation head in opposite directions The latest jump in inflation in Brazil will put pressure on policymakers to raise interest rates further, despite having signalled an end to monetary tightening at last month’s COPOM meeting. In... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hikes but hints that tightening cycle now over Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates last night, but changes to the accompanying statement suggest this could be the final increase in this tightening cycle. Nonetheless, with inflation once... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry set to pick up, despite drop in PMI Brazil’s manufacturing PMI picked up a little in March, while Mexico’s manufacturing PMI edged down. But the bigger picture is that Brazil’s manufacturing sector is still barely growing. By contrast... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation heading in the wrong direction (again) Inflation in Brazil appears to be accelerating once again, and may have been as high as 6% y/y last month. A combination of droughts and a weaker exchange rate are contributing to the problem. But the... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia Election Watch – Next president must be a reformer It seems unlikely that the next Colombian president will be able to rely on a booming natural resources sector to support economic growth. As such, if Juan Manuel Santos is successful in seeking re... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Rocky road to elections despite better data Argentina’s new national accounts data add to the impression that the government is cleaning up its act and moving towards more orthodox policymaking. But with the economy in the midst of a slow... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets steady after January rout Latin America’s financial markets stabilised in March after a woeful start to the year. In most countries, currencies and equity markets made modest gains. Colombia’s financial markets performed... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: SICAD2 is another false dawn The Venezuelan government’s introduction of a new foreign exchange mechanism has been well received by the markets, but with no real efforts to significantly increase the supply of foreign currency we... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency sell-off sees Colombia overtake Argentina A depreciation of the Argentine peso has caused Colombia to overtake Argentina as the region’s third largest economy. Meanwhile, with a shortage of hard currency biting and the bolivar weakening... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: strong growth in Q4, but weakness to come Colombian GDP growth beat expectations in the fourth quarter, but we doubt that the impressiveperformance can be sustained. Lower commodity prices, tighter global monetary conditions and weakercredit... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: slowdown here to stay Chile’s economy slowed dramatically in the fourth quarter of last year and growth looks set to remain weak throughout 2014-15 as the copper boom comes to an end. We are forecasting GDP growth of just... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru and Chile: limited room for interest rate cuts this year The central bank of Chile (BCC) last night cut interest rates in response to a pronounced slowdown in economic growth, while Peruvian interest rates were left on hold after a pick-up in activity at... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
