Latin America Economics Update Argentina debt crisis: no stay brings default closer Judge Griesa’s refusal today to grant the Argentine government a stay in the ongoing debt dispute meansthat it is increasingly likely that the authorities will default on 30th July. Default is another... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First signs that Brazil inflation may be close to peaking Data to the middle of this month suggest that inflation in Brazil is likely to breach the upper bound of its target range for July as a whole but, with the pace of monthly price rises now slowing... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates on hold until after elections Policymakers at the Brazilian central bank (BCB) left interest rates unchanged at 11.0% last night and we do not foresee any rate hikes until after October’s presidential election. But with high... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: More interest rate cuts likely this year T he Chilean central bank cut interest rates last night and with policymakers clearly more concerned about weak growth than above-target inflation, we expect more reductions in the coming months. We... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lack of progress brings Argentine default closer A lack of progress in negotiations between the Argentine government and the holdouts from the 2001 debt default means that there is an increasing chance that the authorities will be forced back into... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Maduro must reform to save the Venezuelan economy Nicolas Maduro has so far failed to reverse any of the damage to the Venezuelan economy caused by his predecessor, Hugo Chavez. Rather than continue to tinker with exchange rate mechanisms, we think... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: interest rate cut unlikely to spur aggressive easing cycle We doubt that last night’s interest rate cut in Peru signals the start of an aggressive easing cycle. Inflation looks set to remain above target while a large current account deficit suggests that... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: strong peso to prevent aggressive interest rate hikes The latest FX intervention programme announced by Colombian policymakers is unlikely to reverse the recent appreciation of the peso against the US$. Accordingly, we expect a strong currency to distort... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch - Election remains Dilma's to lose The latest opinion polls suggest that October’s election remains President Rousseff’s to lose. But although support for her has edged up in the latest polls, following a sharp fall earlier this year... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru reforms unlikely to restore rapid growth The fact that the Peruvian government has responded to weaker economic growth with reforms rather than populist spending is positive. But we do not believe it will deliver the large boost to growth... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Unified FX rate not guaranteed to end Venezuelan dollar drought The Venezuelan economy remains in the grip of a dollar drought, and it seems that the government maysoon abandon its disastrous experiment with a multi-tiered exchange rate. But even if a new... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More gloom for Brazil’s manufacturers June’s business surveys suggest that manufacturing in Brazil is doing little more than stagnating. By contrast, the outlook for Mexican manufacturers is much brighter – the latest survey data suggest... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Default another headwind to economic recovery Following a failure to make an interest payment on restructured bonds yesterday, the Argentine government appears to be heading towards another default unless it can reach agreement with holdouts... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Contagion from Argentine debt dispute limited So far at least, financial markets in Argentina have largely shrugged off the fact that, barring a last minute deal with holdout creditors, the government now seems destined to enter a technical... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine recession to drag on First quarter GDP data released yesterday showed that the Argentine economy was already in recession even before the latest wrangle with the holdouts from 2005’s debt restructuring. As such, we... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where next in Argentina’s debt dispute? A series of statements from Buenos Aires over the weekend provide hope that Argentina’s government might be able to find common ground with “holdout” creditors. Reaching a mutually agreeable solution... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
