Latin America Economics Update El Niño to have limited impact on real economy The El Niño weather event that is expected later this year may cause some localised disruptions, but it is unlikely to have a marked impact on overall economic activity in the region. 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The economic impact of World Cup 2014 The 2014 Football World Cup, which gets underway next month in Brazil, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the country’s flagging economy in the short term – and it certainly won’t do anything... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Slow start to Q2 for Brazilian manufacturers April’s manufacturing PMI suggests that Brazilian manufacturers made a disappointing start to the second quarter. By contrast, the outlook for Mexican manufacturers continues to improve as the US... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bigger investment plan boosts Mexican outlook The Mexican government’s plan to oversee investment projects worth a cumulative 46% of GDP, including an overhaul of the energy industry, should go a long way to ensuring that the economy is Latin... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean GDP growth remained weak in Q1 Chile’s activity data for March point to GDP growth of just 2.7% y/y in the first quarter, suggesting that the recent slowdown in the economy is here to stay. As such, we are increasingly comfortable... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Big fall in Brazilian real is behind us but sustained rally unlikely Having been one of worst performing EM currencies in 2013, the Brazilian real has been one of the best performers so far in 2014, prompting speculation that it will strengthen further from here. We’re... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Aggressive interest rate hikes unlikely in Colombia We do not think that the Colombian central bank’s (BANREP) surprise decision to increase interest rates by 25bp to 3.5% on Friday marks the beginning of an aggressive tightening cycle. With economic... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Recovery gains momentum The past month has seen Latin American financial markets perform fairly well, building on the momentum of March’s rebound. But despite the recent gains, we expect some renewed downside this year amid... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is this really a pragmatic revolution in Argentina and Venezuela? The financial media and markets alike have hailed the apparent shift towards pragmatism in both Argentina and Venezuela as a new dawn. But while recent developments are promising – particularly in... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Return of investment to boost Mexican GDP growth Mexican investment has been weak for the past two years, but we do not think that the economy is heading for a Brazilian-style capacity crunch. Business investment has been relatively buoyant, and... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia Election Watch – Santos on course for re-election A victory for Juan Manuel Santos in next month’s Colombian presidential election may be welcomed bythe markets, but it is unlikely to herald the beginning of structural reforms. As such, with... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update External vulnerabilities mean weak growth, not crisis We have been warning for a very long time that the recent period of strong growth in Latin America has been built on shaky foundations. With external vulnerabilities mounting, several countries in the... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rates on hold – some small cuts possible this year Peruvian interest rates were left unchanged at 4% last night and we think that high inflation and a large current account deficit mean that there is little room for aggressive easing this year as... 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Mexico inflation head in opposite directions The latest jump in inflation in Brazil will put pressure on policymakers to raise interest rates further, despite having signalled an end to monetary tightening at last month’s COPOM meeting. In... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hikes but hints that tightening cycle now over Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates last night, but changes to the accompanying statement suggest this could be the final increase in this tightening cycle. Nonetheless, with inflation once... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry set to pick up, despite drop in PMI Brazil’s manufacturing PMI picked up a little in March, while Mexico’s manufacturing PMI edged down. But the bigger picture is that Brazil’s manufacturing sector is still barely growing. By contrast... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
