Latin America Economics Update Argentine bond swap dashes hopes of a quick end to debt dispute The Argentine government’s plan to swap exchange bonds into local law, if successful, may enable the authorities to exit the current default and limit any damage to the real economy from the debt... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile stuck in the slow lane The further slowdown in Chilean GDP growth in Q2 adds to the evidence that the economy is set for a prolonged period of weaker growth. We continue to expect GDP growth of just 2.8% this year. 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch: First thoughts on Silva’s entry The death last week of Socialist Party presidential candidate Eduardo Campos and the likelihood that he will be replaced at the top of the party’s ticket by Marina Silva, a former Environment Minister... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil set to post sharp drop in Q2 GDP The release of June’s activity data allows us to firm up our estimate of Q2 GDP in Brazil – and the news isn’t good. We think that GDP may have contracted by 0.5% q/q in the second quarter. And with... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: more interest rate cuts to come Policymakers in Chile cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.50% last night and gave a clear indication that there is more monetary easing to come. If economic growth does not pick up as we expect ,the risks... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Stimulus may backfire as bank deal falls through Negative comments from holdout creditors suggest that a solution to the Argentine debt dispute involving private banks has fallen through. That, along with interest rate cuts and monetisation of the... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A fork in the road Data on vehicle production released over the past month suggest contrasting fortunes for Latin America’s two largest economies. While Mexico seems to be turning a corner and growth over the second... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian policymakers to tread carefully Interest rates in Peru were left on hold at 3.75% last night and we think that above-target inflation and a large current account deficit mean that policymakers are likely to resist aggressive... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine default adds to the economy’s problems Last week’s default by the Argentine government is yet another unwanted headwind for the beleaguered economy. Fears of a re-run of 2002’s economic meltdown are overblown. But the messier that the... 7th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit growth cools, but vulnerabilities persist The pace of private sector lending growth in most parts of Latin America has continued to cool this year, but the credit boom of the past decade means that vulnerabilities persist in a few places. At... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More bad news for Brazilian industry Brazilian industrial production contracted sharply in June and July’s weak manufacturing PMI suggests that there could be more bad news in the pipeline. By contrast, the outlook for Mexican industry... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: interest rates do not have much further to rise Policymakers in Colombia hiked interest rates by another 25bp to 4.25% last night but we do not think that the current tightening cycle has much further to run. Inflation is unlikely to pose a problem... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Major shockwaves from Argentine default unlikely We do not expect Argentina’s default to trigger a prolonged ripple of contagion in the rest of Latin America. There may be some turbulence in the region’s financial markets, but we suspect that the... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine default likely to remain a (difficult) local issue Confirmation that Argentina has officially fallen into default after failing to agree a deal with holdout creditors is likely to rattle local markets and has the potential to do significant damage to... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weak Chile activity data point to further interest rate cuts Chile’s activity data for June point to GDP growth of just 2.3% y/y in Q2, an outturn that would mark the third consecutive quarter of sub-3% growth. With the economic outlook unlikely to improve in... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets take Argentina’s debt dispute in their stride The Argentine government seems increasingly likely to default on sovereign debt repayments due at the end of this month but the reaction in both local markets and markets in the region more generally... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
