Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Interest rates unlikely to rise much further Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday and we do not expect rates to rise in the near term. There may be one more 25bp increase to 4.75% next year if domestic demand remains... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil debt risks: private sector still poses the greatest threat Some commentators have argued that the deterioration in Brazil’s public finances in recent years has raised the risk of a fiscal crisis during the next presidential term, which runs from 2015 to 2019... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Problems mounting for weak Argentine economy The Argentine economy was extremely weak in the second quarter and, with the government since defaulting on its debt, it seems that the situation will only get worse in the second half of this year... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch – state of the race The latest opinion polls suggest that Brazil’s presidential election is going to go down to the wire, with support for President Rousseff stabilising in recent weeks. From the perspective of the... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Slower GDP growth points to interest rate hold Today’s weaker-than-expected Colombian GDP data, which showed that the economy grew by 4.3% y/y in Q2 (from 6.4% y/y in Q1), are likely to tip the balance in favour of interest rates being left on... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso has further to fall The Argentine government has introduced various measures in recent weeks to increase the availability of foreign currency in a bid to stem the depreciation of the peso in both official and unofficial... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A period of low interest rates for Chile and Peru Interest rates were cut by 25bp in both Chile and Peru last night and policymakers have room to reduce rates further if growth continues to slow. With little chance of a significant rebound in growth... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry to drive outperformance of the economy Today’s data provide yet further evidence that Mexican industry is turning the corner. With rising demand from the neighbouring US set to boost the manufacturing sector, and the government’s fiscal... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch: What might a Silva presidency mean for the economy? The economic programme put forward by presidential hopeful Marina Silva is a step in the right direction insofar as it addresses many of the problems that have contributed to a general decline in... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Central Bank signals Selic on hold for time being The Central Bank of Brazil kept interest rates on hold at 11% last night and the accompanying statement gave a strong signal that rates are likely to be left unchanged over the coming months. We don’t... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil manufacturing may stagnate in Q3, but no rapid rebound August’s manufacturing PMI suggests that while conditions in Brazilian industry may have stopped getting worse, there is little evidence to suggest that manufacturers will lead a rapid rebound from... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian tightening cycle nearing the end Colombian policymakers increased interest rates by 25bp to 4.50% on Friday but we think that the current tightening cycle is drawing to a close. The pace of economic growth is likely to slow over the... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Drop back into recession ups the pressure on Brazil policymakers Second quarter GDP data showing that Brazil has fallen back into recession will add to pressure on the central bank to loosen policy in order to support the ailing economy. But we suspect that policy... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No signs of contagion from Argentine debt saga The ongoing Argentine debt dispute continues to disrupt local markets, but so far there has been no contagion to the rest of the region. Equities have performed well so far in August, while it has... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Economic damage of Argentine default growing With hopes of a swift resolution to the Argentine debt dispute fading, capital flight appears to be picking up. As a result, the damage to the real economy is likely to be greater than we had... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican economy gaining momentum The fact that the annual rate of Mexican GDP growth slowed to just 1.6% in the second quarter (from 1.9% in Q1) will probably grab the headlines, but the bigger picture is that q/q growth accelerated... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
