Latin America Economics Update More budget cuts likely in Mexico Spending cuts announced by the Mexican government worth 0.7% of GDP are unlikely to be enough to compensate for the loss of oil revenues this year and further spending cuts are likely later this year... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: interest rate cuts still on the cards Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday but, while the accompanying statement remained relatively balanced, the downward revision to this year’s GDP growth forecast suggests... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico on hold but rate cuts still not out of the question Interest rates in Mexico were left unchanged at 3.0% last night and concerns amongst policymakers about the weakness of the peso suggest that cuts are unlikely in the very near-term. For our part, we... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank suggests more hikes to come The big news from yesterday’s central bank meeting in Brazil isn’t the decision to raise interest rates to a three-year high of 12.25% - this was expected by pretty much everyone. Instead, the major... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling commodity prices weigh on markets Latin America’s financial markets have suffered so far this year following fresh declines in the prices of a number of the region’s commodity exports – notably copper and oil. Most equities and... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s housing market starting to cool Good news remains thin on the ground in Brazil, but we take some comfort from the fact that the country’s frothy housing market has so far managed to avoid a hard landing. It’s still early days, but... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where do we stand relative to the consensus? We have revised down many of our forecasts in recent weeks and, on the whole, expect GDP growth and inflation in Latin America to be lower than the consensus forecasts this year. As a result... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Surprise rate cut in Peru, further reductions to come Although the timing of last night’s interest rate cut in Peru caught us (and the market) by surprise, we had been one of the few forecasters expecting rates to fall in the first half of this year. The... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dilma’s second term agenda takes shape The key elements of Brazil’s President Rousseff’s policy agenda for her second term in office have started to emerge over the past month. The central theme is a return to “orthodoxy”, with fiscal and... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: weakest growth since 2009 to trigger rate cuts The continued slide in oil prices will weigh heavily on Colombia’s economy. We have lowered our 2015 GDP growth forecast to just 2.5% (from 3.8% previously), which is well below the 4.3% forecasted by... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ominous signs from Lat Am current accounts Balance of payments problems in Venezuela and Argentina have deflected attention away from the fact that current account positions across much of the rest of Latin America have deteriorated... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fall in oil prices leaves Ecuador facing sharp slowdown Ecuador’s economy faces a slump this year as the sharp fall in oil prices threatens to open up large twin current account and budget deficits. As a result, we are revising down our forecast and now... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Recession to deepen and default likely in 2015 The Venezuelan economy faces a multi-year recession following the recent fall in oil prices. GDPprobably contracted by 3.5% last year and we now suspect that it could decline by another 5.0% thisyear... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest currency sell-off The fall in most Latin American currencies over the past few weeks has taken them through both our end-2014 and our end-2015 forecasts. We still expect most currencies – notably the Brazilian real –... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates in Chile and Peru to fall further in 2015 Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged at 3.00% last night but, with the economic recovery expected to be slow-going and inflation likely to have peaked, we are sticking to our non-consensus... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Four charts that show Venezuela is in a crisis All of the signs suggest that Venezuela is already suffering an economic crisis, making it highly likely that the government will default on its foreign currency debt. 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
