Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate hikes still likely in Peru The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 3.50% came as no surprise and the accompanying statement suggests that policymakers feel little pressure to tighten... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A turning point? The flurry of Q3 GDP data due over the coming weeks are likely to show that the downturn in Latin America’s economy has begun to bottom out. But this marks a wide divergence in performance at a... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies and the impact on inflation The sharp falls in currencies across Latin America over the past year have pushed up inflation in most countries. But the extent of the pass-through has varied significantly. The effect has been... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuelan economy in its worst recession since 1940s The Venezuelan government has continued to block the publication of almost all economic data, but our GDP Tracker suggests that output is now contracting by close to 10% y/y. This would mean that the... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rates hikes likely in Colombia The decision by Colombia’s central bank to hike interest rates by more than expected was a move partly designed to clamp down on a recent surge in inflation but also to maintain its credibility in the... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets find their feet Following a torrid Q3, Latin America’s financial markets have had a good start to Q4. Equities, bonds and currencies have all rallied so far this month. Looking ahead, it will be a bumpy ride over the... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Has Brazil succumbed to “fiscal dominance”? The decision by Brazil’s central bank not to raise interest rates last week has sparked a debate over whether Latin America’s largest economy has succumbed to “fiscal dominance” – whereby fiscal... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Scioli scrapes victory, but ‘Macrinomics’ now possible A much narrower-than-expected victory for Daniel Scioli in Argentina’s general election means that outgoing president Cristina Kirchner’s chosen successor will face a tricky second-round run-off on... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s credit bubble deflates Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that credit bubbles across Latin America have started to deflate. So far at least, this does not appear to have triggered widespread problems for the region’s... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update VW scandal unlikely to dent Mexico’s car industry for long News that Mexico’s flagship Volkswagen (VW) plant has cut weekend shifts, frozen hiring and scaled back production in the wake of the emissions scandal that has engulfed the company has raised... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil downturn to shift from investment to consumers The primary driver of the slump in Brazil’s economy over the past year has been a collapse in business investment. We expect this to ease towards the end of this year – with consumer spending taking... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Scioli presidency mean for Argentina? Daniel Scioli, the candidate of Argentina’s left-wing ruling coalition, seems on course to win the presidential election in the first round on 25th October. His plans for the economy have been... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s tightening cycle to be brief Chile’s decision to raise interest rates last night is likely to be followed by another hike soon, but the bigger picture is that the tightening cycle is likely to be short. Meanwhile, although the... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of China’s slowdown on Latin America Latin America is one of the most exposed emerging market regions to the slowdown in China’s economy. The actual impact so far has varied between countries. Venezuela, Peru, and Chile have been hardest... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Recent weakness in Chilean activity a temporary blip Economic activity data from Chile have been weak in recent months, but we don’t think this marks the start of a deeper downturn. The softer data have been largely the result of various temporary... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real stabilises following sharp sell-off The good news is that the Brazilian real is no longer in freefall and appears to have stabilised at around 4.0/$ in recent days following verbal intervention by policymakers. We’re still taking a... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
