Latin America Economics Update Peru holds rates but hikes still on the horizon The Central Reserve Bank of Peru kept interest rates on hold at 4.25% for a third consecutive month, but we suspect that further rate hikes are still on the way in the second half of the year. Indeed... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Senate votes to put Dilma on trial, what comes next? After a rollercoaster week, in which impeachment proceedings were suspended and then reinstated, Brazil’s Senate has voted 55-22 to put President Rousseff on trial. A new government under Vice... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: taking stock of the Pemex bailout The Mexican government’s bailout of the country’s state-owned energy company Pemex does not have major fiscal implications. The costs are manageable and non-recurring, so should not require... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Tightening cycle close to an end A larger-than-expected hike in interest rates last week, coupled with the fact that inflation should soon peak, means that we suspect that Colombia’s tightening cycle is now nearing an end. We are... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s COPOM to tread carefully Brazil’s COPOM left its benchmark Selic interest rate unchanged at 14.25% yesterday and, while the case for monetary easing is growing, the accompanying statement reinforced our view that interest... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s copper boom set to continue Surging copper production will continue to boost GDP growth in Peru over the next couple of years and, while growth is likely to ease in 2018 as mining output stabilises, we expect a recovery in other... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s bond sale lifts local markets The Argentine government’s return to global capital markets after a 15-year hiatus was met with a surge of investor optimism and coincided with a rally in its financial markets. Meanwhile, the... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Power rationing another blow to Venezuela’s economy Venezuela’s acute power crisis, which has now forced the government into full-blown rationing, has dealt yet another blow to the beleaguered economy. We reckon that the power crisis could subtract... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update 5 questions on Argentina’s return to the bond market Argentina’s government will today issue dollar-denominated bonds on the global capital market for the first time in over fifteen years. In this Update , we answer five key questions about the debt... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru likely to restart tightening cycle later this year The decision by Peru’s central bank to hold interest rates at 4.25% for a second consecutive month suggests that policymakers believe inflationary risks are now waning. But we doubt inflation will... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina ruling clears way for return to bond market The decision just announced by a US appeals court effectively clears the way for the Argentine government to return to international capital markets imminently. This isn’t the end of the road for the... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: notes from the ground Concerns about the deepening political crisis understandably dominated our conversations during a trip to Brazil this week, with a growing number of local market participants now warning of complete... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile postpones interest rate hikes on weak economy The Central Bank of Chile’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 3.50% reflects policymakers concerns about the weakness of the economy and reinforces our view that further rate hikes are... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s election signals continuation of market-friendly policies The early results of Peru’s presidential election suggest that the race will go to a run-off on 5th June. But given that both leading candidates are likely to continue with the current government’s... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Signs of a growing inflation problem in Colombia Colombian inflation hit a 15-year high of 8.0% y/y in March – one of the highest rates among major EMs – and, while most of the rise has been due to temporary factors that should start to fade in the... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind the improvement in Brazil’s trade balance? The rapid improvement in Brazil’s trade balance is due mainly to a collapse in imports caused by the extreme weakness of domestic demand. But there are also signs that a weaker real is starting to... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
