Latin America Economics Update Peru rate hike another step in gradual tightening cycle The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to follow up September’s surprise interest rate hike with a second 25bp hike, to 3.75%, shows that policymakers are still concerned about the persistence of... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a reform checklist Mauricio Macri will be sworn in as president of Argentina today against a backdrop of lofty expectations in financial markets for policy change. The lesson from other EMs is that big reforms tend to... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela opposition supermajority confirmed, Maduro out? Venezuela’s electoral council has finally conceded that the opposition won a two-thirds supermajority in Sunday’s legislative elections and this is certainly a game changer. It will give the... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian food inflation set to ease…but not just yet The various factors pushing up food inflation in Brazil should start to fade by Q2 2016 and, with the boost from this year’s regulated price hikes set to ease too, headline inflation is likely to... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela election: Opposition wins, but no big policy shift likely Venezuela’s opposition comfortably won yesterday’s legislative elections, although with 22 seats still to be declared, the size of the victory (and therefore the impact on policymaking) still hangs in... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela elections: turning point or tipping point? Venezuela’s opposition looks set to triumph in legislative elections on Sunday but, unlike last month’s election upset in Argentina, this won’t trigger a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. If... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: The economic consequences of impeachment As we anticipated, Brazilian markets have so far shrugged off last night’s news that impeachment proceedings will be launched against President Rousseff . As the dust settles, the biggest consequence... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s tightening cycle has further to run The smaller-than-expected 25bp hike in Colombia’s benchmark interest rate, to 5.50%, suggests that policymakers are starting to worry about the impact of tighter monetary policy on the economy. But... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian markets continue to recover Brazil’s financial markets have come under pressure in recent days following the escalation of corruption allegations at state-owned oil company Petrobras, but the bigger picture is that they have... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Macri victory in Argentine elections brightens economic outlook The election of pro-business candidate Mauricio Macri as Argentina’s new president is likely to herald a much-needed shift towards orthodox economic policymaking. In the near term, this is likely to... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: change is nigh Opinion polls are pointing to a narrow victory for pro-reform candidate Mauricio Macri in Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina and, if he prevails, the outlook for the economy would undoubtedly... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate hikes still likely in Peru The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 3.50% came as no surprise and the accompanying statement suggests that policymakers feel little pressure to tighten... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A turning point? The flurry of Q3 GDP data due over the coming weeks are likely to show that the downturn in Latin America’s economy has begun to bottom out. But this marks a wide divergence in performance at a... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies and the impact on inflation The sharp falls in currencies across Latin America over the past year have pushed up inflation in most countries. But the extent of the pass-through has varied significantly. The effect has been... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuelan economy in its worst recession since 1940s The Venezuelan government has continued to block the publication of almost all economic data, but our GDP Tracker suggests that output is now contracting by close to 10% y/y. This would mean that the... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rates hikes likely in Colombia The decision by Colombia’s central bank to hike interest rates by more than expected was a move partly designed to clamp down on a recent surge in inflation but also to maintain its credibility in the... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read