Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru hold interest rates, but hikes on the horizon The decisions by the Chilean and Peruvian central banks to leave monetary policy unchanged didn’t come as a surprise as, for now, the inflation picture in both economies is improving. But with... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Peace deal will improve medium-term outlook The likely signing of a final peace agreement between the Colombian government and the country’s largest insurgent group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), will be an historic... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation set to fall but interest rate cuts to be gradual We expect inflation in Brazil to fall back over the next year but, despite a recent repricing, the centralbank may still not cut interest rates as quickly as the markets expect. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New Argentine GDP data look plausible…but point to recession Argentina’s statistics office has finally released a new GDP series based on a revised methodology and the good news is that it seems to paint a more accurate picture of economic activity on the... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets recover after Brexit jolt Equities and currencies across Latin America tumbled alongside global markets in the immediate aftermath of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, but have since recovered some (and in a few cases... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update $50pb oil still leaves Venezuela in deep trouble The recovery in global oil prices, coupled with a possible restructuring of debt repayments to China will help to ease some of the pressure on Venezuela’s economy but does not alter the bigger picture... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Macri makes inroads into Argentina’s deficit but more work to do Revamped data released by Argentina’s Finance Ministry show that the primary fiscal deficit narrowed significantly in Q1. However, further cuts will be needed to stabilise the public debt ratio and... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First reflections on Temer’s first month Michel Temer’s first month as interim president of Brazil has been a mix of the good (eye-catching economic reforms) and the bad (three members of government, including the transparency minister, have... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s election confirms continuation of market-friendly policy Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s (PPK) victory in Peru’s presidential election is likely to mean the continuation of the current government’s market-friendly economic policy. While there is a risk that his... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Counting the cost of Brazil’s credit binge Non-performing loans in Brazil will climb higher as the past decade’s debt boom continues to unwind. However, we think the cost of cleaning up the banking system should be manageable, helped in part... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s presidential election: three key risks The second (and final) round of Peru’s presidential election, set to take place on Sunday, won’t bring a major shift away from the current government’s fairly market-friendly economic policies... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am currencies rattled more than most Currencies across Latin America have been caught up in the EM-wide sell-off in recent weeks, triggered by the US Fed signalling that a June interest rate hike is still on the table. But a combination... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil fiscal package: lofty rhetoric, but implementation a risk Brazil’s Finance Minister, Henrique Meirelles, has unveiled the first part of his planned fiscal adjustment. Our initial take is that the plans are lofty in ambition, but so far lacking in detail... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: policy tightening underway, but work still to do Argentina’s long-overdue policy tightening – needed to address the country’s entrenched inflation problem – is finally underway, but with the fiscal deficit still large and inflation in excess of 40%... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Rising unemployment likely to delay rate hikes The Central Bank of Chile’s decision to leave its key policy interest rate unchanged at 3.50% reinforces our view that lingering signs of economic weakness, notably the rising unemployment rate, will... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s Meirelles unveils first steps in economic programme Brazil’s new Finance Minister has unveiled a string of eye-catching market-friendly measures this morning, as part of the first plank of his new economic programme. 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
