Latin America Economics Update Argentina ruling clears way for return to bond market The decision just announced by a US appeals court effectively clears the way for the Argentine government to return to international capital markets imminently. This isn’t the end of the road for the... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: notes from the ground Concerns about the deepening political crisis understandably dominated our conversations during a trip to Brazil this week, with a growing number of local market participants now warning of complete... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile postpones interest rate hikes on weak economy The Central Bank of Chile’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 3.50% reflects policymakers concerns about the weakness of the economy and reinforces our view that further rate hikes are... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s election signals continuation of market-friendly policies The early results of Peru’s presidential election suggest that the race will go to a run-off on 5th June. But given that both leading candidates are likely to continue with the current government’s... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Signs of a growing inflation problem in Colombia Colombian inflation hit a 15-year high of 8.0% y/y in March – one of the highest rates among major EMs – and, while most of the rise has been due to temporary factors that should start to fade in the... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind the improvement in Brazil’s trade balance? The rapid improvement in Brazil’s trade balance is due mainly to a collapse in imports caused by the extreme weakness of domestic demand. But there are also signs that a weaker real is starting to... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s election unlikely to mark shift in economic policy The run-up to Peru’s presidential election on Sunday 10th April has been overshadowed by concerns about the neutrality of the country’s electoral authorities. But, whatever the eventual outcome, the... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: 2017 budget cuts to keep fiscal deficit in check The Mexican government announced over the weekend preliminary plans to make additional cuts to government spending next year. This will keep the budget deficit in check against a backdrop of much... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New Argentine GDP data a step in the right direction 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update PMDB exit leaves Dilma on the brink According to widespread reports, Brazil’s largest political party, the PMDB, will later today announce that it plans to leave government – leaving President Rousseff closer to impeachment, and paving... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil interest rates? We expect the Central Bank of Brazil to shift its bias towards looser policy over the coming months, but both the timing and the size of any cuts in interest rates will be determined by what happens... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets rally, Brazilian assets outperform A recovery in global commodity prices has helped to support a broad-based rally in Latin America’s financial markets so far this month. Brazilian assets are down a little today but they have... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: time to call in the IMF? Given that Brazil’s growing debt burden is denominated overwhelmingly in local currency there is little need for the foreign currency financing that an IMF bailout would provide. Instead, the main... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Macri makes big strides in first 100 days but work still to do President Mauricio Macri’s first 100 days in office have seen an impressive range of measures to put Argentina’s fragile balance of payments position on a more sustainable footing. By any reasonable... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weak Chilean economy means rate hikes will be gradual The Central Bank of Chile’s decision to keep interest rates on hold at 3.50% for the third consecutive month reinforces our view that the weakness of the economy will ensure the pace of further... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five things you wanted to know about Brazil (but were too afraid to ask) It’s becoming increasingly difficult to keep tabs on the deepening crisis in Brazil. How much of it is due to political problems? How much is economic? And what should investors watch for as events... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
