Latin America Economics Update Peru’s presidential election: three key risks The second (and final) round of Peru’s presidential election, set to take place on Sunday, won’t bring a major shift away from the current government’s fairly market-friendly economic policies... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am currencies rattled more than most Currencies across Latin America have been caught up in the EM-wide sell-off in recent weeks, triggered by the US Fed signalling that a June interest rate hike is still on the table. But a combination... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil fiscal package: lofty rhetoric, but implementation a risk Brazil’s Finance Minister, Henrique Meirelles, has unveiled the first part of his planned fiscal adjustment. Our initial take is that the plans are lofty in ambition, but so far lacking in detail... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: policy tightening underway, but work still to do Argentina’s long-overdue policy tightening – needed to address the country’s entrenched inflation problem – is finally underway, but with the fiscal deficit still large and inflation in excess of 40%... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Rising unemployment likely to delay rate hikes The Central Bank of Chile’s decision to leave its key policy interest rate unchanged at 3.50% reinforces our view that lingering signs of economic weakness, notably the rising unemployment rate, will... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s Meirelles unveils first steps in economic programme Brazil’s new Finance Minister has unveiled a string of eye-catching market-friendly measures this morning, as part of the first plank of his new economic programme. 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds rates but hikes still on the horizon The Central Reserve Bank of Peru kept interest rates on hold at 4.25% for a third consecutive month, but we suspect that further rate hikes are still on the way in the second half of the year. Indeed... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Senate votes to put Dilma on trial, what comes next? After a rollercoaster week, in which impeachment proceedings were suspended and then reinstated, Brazil’s Senate has voted 55-22 to put President Rousseff on trial. A new government under Vice... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: taking stock of the Pemex bailout The Mexican government’s bailout of the country’s state-owned energy company Pemex does not have major fiscal implications. The costs are manageable and non-recurring, so should not require... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Tightening cycle close to an end A larger-than-expected hike in interest rates last week, coupled with the fact that inflation should soon peak, means that we suspect that Colombia’s tightening cycle is now nearing an end. We are... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s COPOM to tread carefully Brazil’s COPOM left its benchmark Selic interest rate unchanged at 14.25% yesterday and, while the case for monetary easing is growing, the accompanying statement reinforced our view that interest... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s copper boom set to continue Surging copper production will continue to boost GDP growth in Peru over the next couple of years and, while growth is likely to ease in 2018 as mining output stabilises, we expect a recovery in other... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s bond sale lifts local markets The Argentine government’s return to global capital markets after a 15-year hiatus was met with a surge of investor optimism and coincided with a rally in its financial markets. Meanwhile, the... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Power rationing another blow to Venezuela’s economy Venezuela’s acute power crisis, which has now forced the government into full-blown rationing, has dealt yet another blow to the beleaguered economy. We reckon that the power crisis could subtract... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update 5 questions on Argentina’s return to the bond market Argentina’s government will today issue dollar-denominated bonds on the global capital market for the first time in over fifteen years. In this Update , we answer five key questions about the debt... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru likely to restart tightening cycle later this year The decision by Peru’s central bank to hold interest rates at 4.25% for a second consecutive month suggests that policymakers believe inflationary risks are now waning. But we doubt inflation will... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
