Latin America Economics Update Trump & the Mexican peso: how low can you go? The likely market sell-off in response to a victory for Donald Trump next week could push the Mexican peso to as low as 25/$. What happens to the peso beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest data deal a blow to Brazil’s recovery A combination of shutdowns at several large auto plants and a drought-related drop in agricultural exports has set back the recovery in Brazil’s economy. Both headwinds should prove temporary, but our... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: PDVSA bond swap tinkering around the edges The restructuring of the short term dollar debt of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company has reduced the risk of default over the next twelve months, but only at the margin. What’s more, it has added to... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Politics help Lat Am markets to outperform Latin America’s financial markets have performed strongly this month thanks to rising commodity prices, as well as favourable political developments in the cases of Brazil and Mexico. The exception is... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Colombia’s tax reform Colombia’s much-anticipated tax reform bill is impressive and, if passed by Congress, would put the public finances on a more sustainable footing. However, it would create some near-term economic pain... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s star begins to fade Mexico’s faltering economy probably escaped recession in Q3 – but it’s a close call. Our GDP growth forecast for this year was already below consensus but we are nudging it down from 2.0% to 1.8%... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rate cuts to remain gradual, for now The decision by Brazil’s COPOM to cut the benchmark Selic interest rate by only 25bp (rather than 50bp), combined with a slightly less dovish accompanying statement than some had expected, reinforces... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: is Macri already a busted flush? The Argentine government’s recent upward revision to its 2017 budget deficit forecast has added to concerns that President Macri’s reform agenda is already starting to slow after less than a year in... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: MPC divided, but rates to remain on hold Chile’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 3.50%, although the MPC appears to be divided over whether to flag rate cuts or not. For now, we expect signs that the economy is recovering keep... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Interest rates to rise by more than most expect The Peruvian central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold at 4.25% didn’t come as a surprise, but we expect a pick-up in inflation next year to trigger more rate hikes than the consensus... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombians reject peace deal, main risks political Colombian voters’ rejection of the government’s peace deal with the FARC rebel group is unlikely to signal an immediate return to violence. And, while it is a significant blow to the economy’s medium... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico raises rates to shore up the peso, further hikes likely The 50bp hike in Mexican interest rates (to 4.75%) at Thursday’s meeting was aimed squarely at supporting the peso. We expect another half-point increase at December’s meeting, taking rates to 5.25%. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update An anatomy of Brazil’s recession The depth of Brazil’s recession has been blamed on everything from lower global commodity prices and tightening domestic credit conditions to poor infrastructure and excessive red tape. But this... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican peso in the spotlight The sharp drop in the Mexican peso against the dollar this month, driven partly by Donald Trump’s surge in the US election polls, has increased the chances of an interest rate hike at Thursday’s MPC... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump, the US election and the implications for Latin America Donald Trump’s performance in last night’s first US presidential election debate doesn’t appear to have done himself any favours, but his election in November is still a real possibility. This would... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Q2 GDP data not as bad as they appear The bigger-than-expected drop in Argentine GDP in Q2 was alarming, but it was due largely to a slump in exports, which should be temporary. The pace of contraction in domestic demand eased and the... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
