Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank set to ease monetary policy further The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to cut its policy interest rate by 25bp, to 4.00%, took most analysts by surprise, but not us. We expect one further 25bp cut, to 3.75%, over the coming... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: progress on reform slows ahead of legislative elections President Macri has made solid progress in tackling Argentina’s economic vulnerabilities over the past eighteen months but reform momentum more recently has slowed. With legislative elections... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Temer’s reforms inch forward in face of mounting opposition Despite mounting public opposition, President Temer’s reform agenda is inching ahead in Brazil. Labour market reforms have passed the lower house, but the real test lies ahead with pension reform. The... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexico survey data continue to diverge April’s survey data point to a continued improvement in Brazil’s economy at the start of Q2, while in Mexico they suggest conditions have deteriorated further. But with provisional Q1 GDP data for... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: lower structural interest rate depends on fiscal reform There is now broad agreement in financial markets that interest rates in Brazil will fall into single digits this year, but keeping them there will require the “neutral” or “structural” level of... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Monetary policy drives divergence in bond yields Moves in Latin America’s currency and equity markets this month have been relatively small but the divergent paths of government bond yields have been more eye-catching. While short-term local... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Deleveraging well underway, but few signs of financial stress Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that, while Latin America’s credit bubbles have continued to deflate, this doesn’t yet appear to have triggered widespread problems in the region’s banking sectors... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rising food inflation set to delay interest rate cuts Rising food inflation is likely to dissuade Peru’s central bank from cutting its policy interest rate for the time being. But with the economy slowing and core price pressure low, an easing of... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican survey data overstating slowdown in the real economy The collapse in Mexico’s main business surveys and a number of confidence indices since President Trump’s election victory in November has been alarming, but it hasn’t yet been accompanied by a... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: inflation risks mean interest rates cuts are unlikely Peru’s central bank kept its policy interest rate on hold at 4.25% and, while the accompanying statement struck a dovish tone, the risk of a surge in inflation means rate cuts are unlikely. That said... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking Venezuela’s latest political crisis Venezuela has hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past week, with the Supreme Court first annulling the National Assembly before then partly reversing its decision. However, a change... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Politics still the biggest threat to Brazil’s recovery Brazil’s beleaguered government will have to fight major challenges on at least three fronts over the coming months. As things stand, there appears to be a way forward for the government on each of... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update March survey data strike more positive tone in Brazil and Mexico The latest batch of survey data suggests that Brazil’s economy continued to recover in March, while in Mexico the recent slump in the IMEF business surveys is starting to reverse. 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador’s election too close to call Opinion polls suggest that the outcome of Ecuador’s presidential election on Sunday is still too close to call. A victory for government candidate Lenin Moreno would mean more of the same leftist... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US appears to soften stance on NAFTA, but long road ahead A leaked copy of a notification letter from the Trump administration to Congress suggests that its plans for renegotiating NAFTA are more consistent with the idea of creating a “North American... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: provincial spending cap positive, but hurdles remain The proposed spending cap on Argentina’s provincial governments is a positive step and could in theory narrow the overall public sector budget deficit by almost 1% of GDP by 2019. However, it’s not... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
