Latin America Economics Update Unpacking Venezuela’s latest political crisis Venezuela has hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past week, with the Supreme Court first annulling the National Assembly before then partly reversing its decision. However, a change... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Politics still the biggest threat to Brazil’s recovery Brazil’s beleaguered government will have to fight major challenges on at least three fronts over the coming months. As things stand, there appears to be a way forward for the government on each of... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update March survey data strike more positive tone in Brazil and Mexico The latest batch of survey data suggests that Brazil’s economy continued to recover in March, while in Mexico the recent slump in the IMEF business surveys is starting to reverse. 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador’s election too close to call Opinion polls suggest that the outcome of Ecuador’s presidential election on Sunday is still too close to call. A victory for government candidate Lenin Moreno would mean more of the same leftist... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US appears to soften stance on NAFTA, but long road ahead A leaked copy of a notification letter from the Trump administration to Congress suggests that its plans for renegotiating NAFTA are more consistent with the idea of creating a “North American... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: provincial spending cap positive, but hurdles remain The proposed spending cap on Argentina’s provincial governments is a positive step and could in theory narrow the overall public sector budget deficit by almost 1% of GDP by 2019. However, it’s not... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s peso hedges unlikely to have a big impact The Mexican central bank’s new programme of auctioning currency hedges marks a significant departure from its previous FX intervention policy, but is currently small in scale. As such, we doubt it... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Meat scandal could be the latest threat to Brazil’s recovery It’s too soon to say exactly how events will play out, but at face value the developing scandal over Brazil’s meat exports could plausibly derail the country’s economic recovery. 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Revised GDP data point to economy facing recession Revised Chilean GDP data confirmed that annual growth slowed to a seven-year low in Q4. They also revealed that the economy contracted from the previous quarter. With a strike at the country’s largest... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank cuts interest rates, signals further easing Chile’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by 25bp, to 3.00%, and used the accompanying statement to signal that further easing is likely over the coming months. This supports our non-consensus... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dollar debt risks building in Argentina Argentina’s dollar debt burden as a share of GDP is now one of the largest in the EM world. What’s more, it is concentrated largely in the public sector. This leaves the government vulnerable to... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update When will unemployment in Brazil stabilise? The various forecasts circulating of the GDP growth rate needed to stabilize unemployment in Brazil tend to miss the important point that productivity growth is typically faster in the early stages of... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian interest rates on hold, next move still likely to be up Peru’s central bank kept interest rates on hold once again at 4.25% and, while the economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months, stubbornly above-target inflation means the next move in the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension reforms: five key questions With Brazil returning from carnival, thoughts are shifting back to President Temer’s domestic policy agenda and, in particular, the prospects for planned pensions reform over the coming months that... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strike at major copper mine leaves Chile flirting with recession There is a good chance that a strike at Chile’s largest copper mine will tip the economy into a technical recession in Q1. While growth should return in Q2, the weakness of the non-mining sector means... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest business surveys The deterioration in Mexico’s IMEF survey since the start of this year looks alarming but there are reasons to believe that it is overstating the softness in the real economy. Meanwhile, the incoming... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
