Latin America Economics Update Mexico: yield curve inversion doesn’t necessarily signal recession There is little evidence that the inversion of Mexico’s government bond yield curve means a recession is imminent. But it chimes with our view that economic growth is likely to soften over the... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Brazil’s new inflation target The decision to lower Brazil’s inflation target from 4.5% currently to 4.25% in 2019 and 4.00% in 2020 is clearly a step in the right direction, but it’s worth bearing in mind that inflation targets... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s economic recovery to continue The stronger-than-expected 1.1% q/q rise in Argentine GDP in Q1 was driven by a pick-up in domestic demand, which is likely to have been the key beneficiary of looser fiscal policy ahead of October’s... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Argentina sell-offs should be seen in context Financial markets in Brazil sold off yesterday following the decision by a Senate Committee to reject the government’s labour reform bill, while the stock market in Argentina has dropped today after... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would happen if Brazil fails to pass pension reform? If Brazil’s pension reforms were to collapse, the immediate impact on the economy would be determined by the knock-on effects to broader financial conditions. Over the longer term, we estimate that a... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Central bank holds rates, but further cuts to come Chile’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.50% following its latest MPC meeting, but with inflation set to remain below target and no sign of a turnaround in the economy, we... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Regional recovery to continue, politics willing Latin America’s economy finally returned to growth in Q1 and the latest data suggest that the recovery continued in Q2. While domestic political developments are a key downside risk to the outlook, we... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: monetary policy easing cycle has further to run Peru’s central bank unexpectedly left its policy interest rate unchanged at 4.00%, but the accompanying statement hinted at further easing and we think additional rate cuts are likely. We expect the... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s electoral court ruling: a primer Brazil’s electoral court has reconvened this week to rule on whether illegal campaign donations made during the 2014 presidential election invalidate the Rousseff-Temer ticket. In this Update, we... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spillovers from Venezuela’s crisis limited to smaller economies The deepening crisis in Venezuela could have significant spillovers to some Central American and Caribbean countries such as Nicaragua and Cuba. But the impact on larger countries in the region... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico survey data rebound to pre-Trump levels Survey data from Mexico strengthened markedly in May and are now generally back to their levels prior to Trump’s election victory in November. Elsewhere, the latest survey data from Brazil continue to... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Temer fallout contained, but yield curve steepens Brazil’s financial markets sold off sharply in the immediate aftermath of the latest corruption allegations against President Temer, with equities, the currency and bonds all coming under pressure... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: no signs (yet) of major tightening in financial conditions It’s still too soon to say how Brazil’s latest political drama will play out, but the key point for the economy is that the crisis has not yet caused a sharp tightening in financial conditions. 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: further interest rate cuts unlikely Chile’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by another 25bp, to 2.50%, but with the economy showing tentative signs of recovery, we think the easing cycle is over for now. We expect the policy... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: corruption allegations deal fresh blow to reform agenda Allegations that Brazilian president Michel Temer endorsed bribes to buy the silence of former house speaker, Eduardo Cunha, has dealt a fresh blow to the government’s reform agenda. The real and bond... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Notes from the ground We have just returned from a week of meetings with investors and local contacts in Mexico City. In this Update we summarise four quick takeaways. 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
