Latin America Economics Update Mexico survey data rebound to pre-Trump levels Survey data from Mexico strengthened markedly in May and are now generally back to their levels prior to Trump’s election victory in November. Elsewhere, the latest survey data from Brazil continue to... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Temer fallout contained, but yield curve steepens Brazil’s financial markets sold off sharply in the immediate aftermath of the latest corruption allegations against President Temer, with equities, the currency and bonds all coming under pressure... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: no signs (yet) of major tightening in financial conditions It’s still too soon to say how Brazil’s latest political drama will play out, but the key point for the economy is that the crisis has not yet caused a sharp tightening in financial conditions. 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: further interest rate cuts unlikely Chile’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by another 25bp, to 2.50%, but with the economy showing tentative signs of recovery, we think the easing cycle is over for now. We expect the policy... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: corruption allegations deal fresh blow to reform agenda Allegations that Brazilian president Michel Temer endorsed bribes to buy the silence of former house speaker, Eduardo Cunha, has dealt a fresh blow to the government’s reform agenda. The real and bond... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Notes from the ground We have just returned from a week of meetings with investors and local contacts in Mexico City. In this Update we summarise four quick takeaways. 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank set to ease monetary policy further The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to cut its policy interest rate by 25bp, to 4.00%, took most analysts by surprise, but not us. We expect one further 25bp cut, to 3.75%, over the coming... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: progress on reform slows ahead of legislative elections President Macri has made solid progress in tackling Argentina’s economic vulnerabilities over the past eighteen months but reform momentum more recently has slowed. With legislative elections... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Temer’s reforms inch forward in face of mounting opposition Despite mounting public opposition, President Temer’s reform agenda is inching ahead in Brazil. Labour market reforms have passed the lower house, but the real test lies ahead with pension reform. The... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexico survey data continue to diverge April’s survey data point to a continued improvement in Brazil’s economy at the start of Q2, while in Mexico they suggest conditions have deteriorated further. But with provisional Q1 GDP data for... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: lower structural interest rate depends on fiscal reform There is now broad agreement in financial markets that interest rates in Brazil will fall into single digits this year, but keeping them there will require the “neutral” or “structural” level of... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Monetary policy drives divergence in bond yields Moves in Latin America’s currency and equity markets this month have been relatively small but the divergent paths of government bond yields have been more eye-catching. While short-term local... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Deleveraging well underway, but few signs of financial stress Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that, while Latin America’s credit bubbles have continued to deflate, this doesn’t yet appear to have triggered widespread problems in the region’s banking sectors... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rising food inflation set to delay interest rate cuts Rising food inflation is likely to dissuade Peru’s central bank from cutting its policy interest rate for the time being. But with the economy slowing and core price pressure low, an easing of... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican survey data overstating slowdown in the real economy The collapse in Mexico’s main business surveys and a number of confidence indices since President Trump’s election victory in November has been alarming, but it hasn’t yet been accompanied by a... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: inflation risks mean interest rates cuts are unlikely Peru’s central bank kept its policy interest rate on hold at 4.25% and, while the accompanying statement struck a dovish tone, the risk of a surge in inflation means rate cuts are unlikely. That said... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
