Latin America Economics Update How far might the Mexican peso fall if Nafta collapses? We think the Mexican peso could initially fall to as far as 23/$ in the event that Nafta collapses. What happens to the currency beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon several factors, most... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank shrugs off inflation dip Peru’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.50% last night, and while there could be scope to ease policy a little further in the next 3-6 months, as things stand we expect rates... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would the collapse of Nafta mean for Mexico? The immediate effects of a collapse in Nafta on Mexico’s economy might be smaller than many expect – we would probably nudge down our GDP forecast for 2018 by something like 0.5-1.0%-pts. The effects... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: mining downturn should soon bottom out We estimate that a fall in mining output shaved about 0.4%-pts off annual GDP growth in Mexico in Q3. Mining output should stabilise over the coming year, but we doubt that reforms to the sector will... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s property bubble deflates The deflation of Brazil’s property bubble appears in most regions to be happening via a stagnation in (nominal) prices, thus allowing prices and incomes in the rest of the economy catch up. This has... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to watch for in upcoming elections Latin America’s economic recovery is strengthening but a series of elections over the coming months has added some uncertainty to the outlook. The immediate focus will be on upcoming votes in... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Survey data suggest recovery is grinding on The broad picture to emerge from September’s business surveys is that the economic recovery in Latin America is continuing. The latest surveys do not fully capture the disruption caused by last month... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rally in Lat Am markets cools, but strong Q3 overall Latin America’s financial markets have come under a bit of pressure over the past week or so but the bigger picture is that they have had a strong Q3 overall, comfortably outperforming markets in... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further upside surprises to come in Brazil A string of better-than-expected activity data from Brazil has pushed consensus GDP forecasts for 2017 and 2018 towards our own, more bullish, view. While some of the tailwinds that have helped the... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s economic recovery looking unbalanced Recently-released GDP data confirmed that Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, with economy growing at its fastest pace in two years. However, the drivers of growth are looking unbalanced. 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep.) The slight increase in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 2.6% y/y from 2.5% y/y in August, is the first real sign that the headline rate may have now bottomed out, and reinforces... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s draft 2018 budget The sizeable fiscal squeeze unveiled in Argentina’s draft 2018 budget is a step in the right direction, but it would only reverse this year’s loosening of fiscal policy ahead of October’s legislative... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru cuts interest rates, but political turmoil set to rattle markets Peru’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by 25bp last night, to 3.50%, and confirmed our view that rates are unlikely to fall further. What’s more, the surprise decision by Congress to dismiss... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A guide to Venezuela’s upcoming debt repayments US financial sanctions on Venezuela have caused markets to price in a higher probability of default before year-end. While our sense is that the government will be able to stump up enough oil revenues... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian central bank nearing end of easing cycle The Brazilian central bank cut its benchmark Selic interest rate by 100bp, to 8.25%, last night and confirmed our view that the end of the easing cycle is not far off. As things stand, our forecast is... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Temer clings on but hopes for pension reform fading Brazil’s government should continue to make headway in reforming a number of areas of the economy, but we think that the prospects of meaningful reform to the country’s pension system is now no more... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
