Latin America Economics Update Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep.) The slight increase in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 2.6% y/y from 2.5% y/y in August, is the first real sign that the headline rate may have now bottomed out, and reinforces... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s draft 2018 budget The sizeable fiscal squeeze unveiled in Argentina’s draft 2018 budget is a step in the right direction, but it would only reverse this year’s loosening of fiscal policy ahead of October’s legislative... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru cuts interest rates, but political turmoil set to rattle markets Peru’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by 25bp last night, to 3.50%, and confirmed our view that rates are unlikely to fall further. What’s more, the surprise decision by Congress to dismiss... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A guide to Venezuela’s upcoming debt repayments US financial sanctions on Venezuela have caused markets to price in a higher probability of default before year-end. While our sense is that the government will be able to stump up enough oil revenues... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian central bank nearing end of easing cycle The Brazilian central bank cut its benchmark Selic interest rate by 100bp, to 8.25%, last night and confirmed our view that the end of the easing cycle is not far off. As things stand, our forecast is... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Temer clings on but hopes for pension reform fading Brazil’s government should continue to make headway in reforming a number of areas of the economy, but we think that the prospects of meaningful reform to the country’s pension system is now no more... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil privatisation plans give stocks an extra boost Financial markets in Brazil had already had a good month, but this week’s news that the government plans to privatise a host of state-controlled enterprises has helped to push the equity market to a... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank still divided over need for further easing Chile’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.50% for the third consecutive month and, while the accompanying statement gave no hints that rate cuts are being considered, we... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Macri in decent shape ahead of legislative elections With most of the votes in Argentina’s primary legislative elections now counted, it appears that support for President Macri’s ruling coalition has held up better-than-expected, and the peso is likely... 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank holds interest rates, but signals further easing Peru’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.75% last night, but used the accompanying statement to signal that further easing is on the way. As such, we continue to expect one... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The renegotiation of Nafta: a primer Talks to renegotiate Nafta are set to begin on 16th August and look increasingly unlikely to result in major changes that would disrupt Mexico-US trade. Even so, there are still a number of potential... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would an escalation of US sanctions mean for Venezuela? The decision by the US Treasury to sanction Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro was on the more benign end of the spectrum of options reportedly under consideration and is unlikely to have much... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican peso likely to hold on to recent gains With the likelihood of major disruption to Mexico-US trade as a result of the renegotiation of NAFTA receding, we’re revising up our forecast for the Mexican peso and now expect it to end the year at... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia slows pace of easing, but significant rate cuts still likely The statement accompanying the Colombian central bank’s decision to slow the pace of interest rate cuts to 25bp (from 50bp previously) suggests that policy might not be loosened as aggressively in the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and the rising populist threat It’s still too soon to say how next year’s presidential elections in Brazil will pan out, but it’s not impossible to see how voters might return an economic populist to the Planalto. If so, there are... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso has further to fall The Argentine peso has been the worst-performing EM currency over the past month, and we think it has further to fall. Our forecast is for it to weaken by another 10% against the dollar to 19/$ by end... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
