Latin America Economics Update What would an AMLO presidency mean for Mexico? Mexico’s presidential election race is starting to take shape, with Finance Minister José Antonio Meade this month stepping down from his post in order to run on the ticket of the ruling PRI party... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More to Brazil FDI flows than meets the eye The resilience of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Brazil has been held up as one of the few good news stories of recent years. The reality, however, is far more complicated. While FDI inflows... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s equities collapse, but other assets resilient The collapse in Chile’s equity market following a smaller-than-expected victory for business-friendly candidate Sebastián Piñera in the first round of this month’s presidential election has not been... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Elections to shape challenges facing Diaz de León Alejandro Diaz de León, who has been named as the next Governor of the Central Bank of Mexico, is very much a continuity appointment that is unlikely to have a major impact on either financial markets... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five key points on Chile’s elections Centre-right ex-president Sebastián Piñera won yesterday’s election in Chile but by a smaller margin than expected and will now face Alejandro Guillier in a second-round run-off on 17th December... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s current account improvement unlikely to last The narrowing in Brazil’s current account deficit over the past couple of years has been driven almost entirely by a recession-induced collapse in imports. As a result, the deficit is likely to widen... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate cuts likely in Peru The decision by Peru’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate – by 25bp to 3.25% – caught most by surprise but was in line with our forecast, and we expect further easing over the coming months... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Cutting through the latest on PDVSA’s ‘default’ With Venezuela’s state-owned oil company having reportedly failed to make a principal payment on a bond that has now matured, credit default swaps are likely to be triggered on Friday. This is sure to... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine central bank has more work to do The decision by Argentina’s central bank to follow up last month’s surprise interest rate hike with another increase last night reinforces the view that policymakers are getting tough on inflation. We... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela could be in default by end of the week As markets digest conflicting statements by Venezuelan policymakers about their plans for debt servicing, one point to emphasise is that both PDVSA and the government could fall into default by the... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Huge challenges to Venezuela’s debt restructuring The announcement by President Maduro that Venezuela’s government plans to restructure its external debt essentially amounts to admitting that it will default in the coming weeks. While the exact... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s BNDES reform slips under the radar The planned changes to the way that Brazil’s state development bank, BNDES, will set interest rates on its loans have passed under the radar but the macroeconomic effects could be significant. We... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Pushing down our BRL forecasts Most currencies in Latin America have weakened against the dollar over the past month, but the Brazilian real and Mexican peso have suffered particularly large falls as the political mood in both... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update One chart to watch for Argentine investors The performance of President Macri’s Cambiemos coalition in last weekend’s legislative elections has given a boost to reform hopes, but we can’t escape the feeling that investors are glossing over the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina raises rates, leaves door open to further hikes The decision by Argentina’s central bank to hike its policy interest rate, when most analysts had been expecting the next move to be a cut, is an encouraging sign that policymakers are serious about... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Over to you, President Macri The strong showing by President Macri’s Cambiemos coalition in yesterday’s legislative elections is likely to give a boost to local financial markets when they open later today. However, attention... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
