Latin America Economics Update Peru leaves rates on hold, but one more cut still likely Peru’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.00% yesterday as expected, but the accompanying statement left the door open for further easing. We think that a further drop in inflation in the... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's industrial recovery remains on track 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lula verdict gives bump to markets but questions remain The decision by a Brazilian court to uphold the corruption conviction against former President Lula complicates his plans to run for the presidency this year but it doesn't finish them altogether. The... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA shift puts Argentine peso under pressure It’s been a good start to 2018 for Latin America’s financial markets, with equities outperforming those in developed markets, currencies posting strong gains against the dollar, and bond spreads... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s recovery to strengthen in 2018 We expect economic growth in Colombia to accelerate over the course of 2018. Inflation should fall sharply from the start of this year and interest rates are likely to be cut further. We do not... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: navigating choppy waters… July’s elections and Nafta renegotiations make the uncertainties around the outlook for interest rates in Mexico unusually high. An election upset or the collapse of Nafta could result in interest... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil? The cyclical forces driving Brazil’s economic recovery are likely to strengthen over the next 6-12 months and our GDP forecast for 2018 remains above the consensus. Our bigger concern lies around... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update World Bank not to blame for Chile’s investment collapse The admission by World Bank Chief Economist Paul Romer that the drop in Chile’s ranking in its annual Doing Business survey in recent years is due almost entirely to changes in how the survey is... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank still has room to trim rates further Peru’s central bank cut its policy interest rate last night by 25bp to 3.00% and, while the statement didn’t give much away regarding future moves, we still think there’s room for another 25bp cut in... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting Nafta (again) Concerns over the fate of Nafta have caused more wobbles in Mexican markets over the past day, but the economic implications are less straightforward than much of the commentary suggests. While any... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina fixing fiscal mess but wavering on inflation Argentina’s president, Mauricio Macri, has wasted little time in kick-starting his reform agenda following October’s mid-term elections, with a range of fiscal measures announced over the past month... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in Brazil & Mexico probably picked up in Q4 We wouldn’t put much weight on the dip in Mexico’s business surveys in December since they have become a less reliable indicator of shifts in economic conditions over the past year. Indeed, the hard... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A strong 2017 – but 2018 likely to be more challenging 2017 has been another strong year for asset markets in Latin America but there are already signs that 2018 will be more challenging. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Kuczynski impeachment threat rumbles Peru’s markets The vote due later this week by Peru’s congress on whether to impeach President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski seems likely to pass. If removed, Vice President Martin Vizcarra would take over and, while a... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Piñera prevails but reform agenda will meet resistance Sebastián Piñera won the second round of Chile’s presidential election, but difficulties in Congress may make it hard to implement parts of his market-friendly reform agenda, including cuts to the... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates in Chile and Peru to be cut further in 2018 Central banks in Chile and Peru left interest rates unchanged last night, but both accompanying statements left the door open for further easing. With inflation rising in Chile, the window for cuts is... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
