Latin America Economics Update Huge challenges to Venezuela’s debt restructuring The announcement by President Maduro that Venezuela’s government plans to restructure its external debt essentially amounts to admitting that it will default in the coming weeks. While the exact... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s BNDES reform slips under the radar The planned changes to the way that Brazil’s state development bank, BNDES, will set interest rates on its loans have passed under the radar but the macroeconomic effects could be significant. We... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Pushing down our BRL forecasts Most currencies in Latin America have weakened against the dollar over the past month, but the Brazilian real and Mexican peso have suffered particularly large falls as the political mood in both... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update One chart to watch for Argentine investors The performance of President Macri’s Cambiemos coalition in last weekend’s legislative elections has given a boost to reform hopes, but we can’t escape the feeling that investors are glossing over the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina raises rates, leaves door open to further hikes The decision by Argentina’s central bank to hike its policy interest rate, when most analysts had been expecting the next move to be a cut, is an encouraging sign that policymakers are serious about... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Over to you, President Macri The strong showing by President Macri’s Cambiemos coalition in yesterday’s legislative elections is likely to give a boost to local financial markets when they open later today. However, attention... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How far might the Mexican peso fall if Nafta collapses? We think the Mexican peso could initially fall to as far as 23/$ in the event that Nafta collapses. What happens to the currency beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon several factors, most... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank shrugs off inflation dip Peru’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.50% last night, and while there could be scope to ease policy a little further in the next 3-6 months, as things stand we expect rates... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would the collapse of Nafta mean for Mexico? The immediate effects of a collapse in Nafta on Mexico’s economy might be smaller than many expect – we would probably nudge down our GDP forecast for 2018 by something like 0.5-1.0%-pts. The effects... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: mining downturn should soon bottom out We estimate that a fall in mining output shaved about 0.4%-pts off annual GDP growth in Mexico in Q3. Mining output should stabilise over the coming year, but we doubt that reforms to the sector will... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s property bubble deflates The deflation of Brazil’s property bubble appears in most regions to be happening via a stagnation in (nominal) prices, thus allowing prices and incomes in the rest of the economy catch up. This has... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to watch for in upcoming elections Latin America’s economic recovery is strengthening but a series of elections over the coming months has added some uncertainty to the outlook. The immediate focus will be on upcoming votes in... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Survey data suggest recovery is grinding on The broad picture to emerge from September’s business surveys is that the economic recovery in Latin America is continuing. The latest surveys do not fully capture the disruption caused by last month... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rally in Lat Am markets cools, but strong Q3 overall Latin America’s financial markets have come under a bit of pressure over the past week or so but the bigger picture is that they have had a strong Q3 overall, comfortably outperforming markets in... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further upside surprises to come in Brazil A string of better-than-expected activity data from Brazil has pushed consensus GDP forecasts for 2017 and 2018 towards our own, more bullish, view. While some of the tailwinds that have helped the... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s economic recovery looking unbalanced Recently-released GDP data confirmed that Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, with economy growing at its fastest pace in two years. However, the drivers of growth are looking unbalanced. 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
