Latin America Economics Update Argentina fixing fiscal mess but wavering on inflation Argentina’s president, Mauricio Macri, has wasted little time in kick-starting his reform agenda following October’s mid-term elections, with a range of fiscal measures announced over the past month... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in Brazil & Mexico probably picked up in Q4 We wouldn’t put much weight on the dip in Mexico’s business surveys in December since they have become a less reliable indicator of shifts in economic conditions over the past year. Indeed, the hard... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A strong 2017 – but 2018 likely to be more challenging 2017 has been another strong year for asset markets in Latin America but there are already signs that 2018 will be more challenging. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Kuczynski impeachment threat rumbles Peru’s markets The vote due later this week by Peru’s congress on whether to impeach President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski seems likely to pass. If removed, Vice President Martin Vizcarra would take over and, while a... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Piñera prevails but reform agenda will meet resistance Sebastián Piñera won the second round of Chile’s presidential election, but difficulties in Congress may make it hard to implement parts of his market-friendly reform agenda, including cuts to the... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates in Chile and Peru to be cut further in 2018 Central banks in Chile and Peru left interest rates unchanged last night, but both accompanying statements left the door open for further easing. With inflation rising in Chile, the window for cuts is... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would an AMLO presidency mean for Mexico? Mexico’s presidential election race is starting to take shape, with Finance Minister José Antonio Meade this month stepping down from his post in order to run on the ticket of the ruling PRI party... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More to Brazil FDI flows than meets the eye The resilience of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Brazil has been held up as one of the few good news stories of recent years. The reality, however, is far more complicated. While FDI inflows... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s equities collapse, but other assets resilient The collapse in Chile’s equity market following a smaller-than-expected victory for business-friendly candidate Sebastián Piñera in the first round of this month’s presidential election has not been... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Elections to shape challenges facing Diaz de León Alejandro Diaz de León, who has been named as the next Governor of the Central Bank of Mexico, is very much a continuity appointment that is unlikely to have a major impact on either financial markets... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five key points on Chile’s elections Centre-right ex-president Sebastián Piñera won yesterday’s election in Chile but by a smaller margin than expected and will now face Alejandro Guillier in a second-round run-off on 17th December... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s current account improvement unlikely to last The narrowing in Brazil’s current account deficit over the past couple of years has been driven almost entirely by a recession-induced collapse in imports. As a result, the deficit is likely to widen... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate cuts likely in Peru The decision by Peru’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate – by 25bp to 3.25% – caught most by surprise but was in line with our forecast, and we expect further easing over the coming months... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Cutting through the latest on PDVSA’s ‘default’ With Venezuela’s state-owned oil company having reportedly failed to make a principal payment on a bond that has now matured, credit default swaps are likely to be triggered on Friday. This is sure to... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine central bank has more work to do The decision by Argentina’s central bank to follow up last month’s surprise interest rate hike with another increase last night reinforces the view that policymakers are getting tough on inflation. We... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela could be in default by end of the week As markets digest conflicting statements by Venezuelan policymakers about their plans for debt servicing, one point to emphasise is that both PDVSA and the government could fall into default by the... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
