Latin America Economics Update Brazil: living on borrowed time We don’t think that the apparent collapse of pension reform in Brazil will have much of a bearing on the economy’s performance over the next 6-12 months. Even so, the current pension system – and by... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: notes from the ground We have just returned from a week of meetings with clients and local contacts in Bogotá. In this Update, we summarise four key takeaways from our visit. 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Monetary policy cycles nearing turning points Monetary policy cycles across the region are nearing turning points. In most cases this means that easing cycles are drawing to a close and, as markets start to consider the eventual onset of monetary... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation set to drift higher We expect inflation in Brazil to drift higher in the coming months, reaching just over 4% y/y by the end of this year. This won’t cause a major headache for policymakers but, despite the dovish tone... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: interest rates to be cut by less than most expect The decision by Argentina’s central bank to pause its easing cycle last night was accompanied by another cautious statement, reinforcing our view that interest rates will be cut by less than most... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update External vulnerabilities continue to diminish The volatility in global financial markets in recent weeks has brought concerns about EM external vulnerabilities back into the spotlight. However, with the notable exception of Argentina, economies... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru leaves rates on hold, but one more cut still likely Peru’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.00% yesterday as expected, but the accompanying statement left the door open for further easing. We think that a further drop in inflation in the... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's industrial recovery remains on track 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lula verdict gives bump to markets but questions remain The decision by a Brazilian court to uphold the corruption conviction against former President Lula complicates his plans to run for the presidency this year but it doesn't finish them altogether. The... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA shift puts Argentine peso under pressure It’s been a good start to 2018 for Latin America’s financial markets, with equities outperforming those in developed markets, currencies posting strong gains against the dollar, and bond spreads... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s recovery to strengthen in 2018 We expect economic growth in Colombia to accelerate over the course of 2018. Inflation should fall sharply from the start of this year and interest rates are likely to be cut further. We do not... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: navigating choppy waters… July’s elections and Nafta renegotiations make the uncertainties around the outlook for interest rates in Mexico unusually high. An election upset or the collapse of Nafta could result in interest... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil? The cyclical forces driving Brazil’s economic recovery are likely to strengthen over the next 6-12 months and our GDP forecast for 2018 remains above the consensus. Our bigger concern lies around... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update World Bank not to blame for Chile’s investment collapse The admission by World Bank Chief Economist Paul Romer that the drop in Chile’s ranking in its annual Doing Business survey in recent years is due almost entirely to changes in how the survey is... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank still has room to trim rates further Peru’s central bank cut its policy interest rate last night by 25bp to 3.00% and, while the statement didn’t give much away regarding future moves, we still think there’s room for another 25bp cut in... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting Nafta (again) Concerns over the fate of Nafta have caused more wobbles in Mexican markets over the past day, but the economic implications are less straightforward than much of the commentary suggests. While any... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
