Latin America Economics Update More to Chile’s short-term debt than meets the eye Chile’s short-term external debt burden is one of the largest in the emerging world, but there is more to it than meets the eye. A large chunk reflects intercompany lending, and most of this is... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update FX sell-off to trigger hike in Mexico, but Brazil to hold The latest sell-off in the Mexican peso tips the balance towards policy being tightened at Thursday’s central bank meeting. We’re changing our forecast and now expect a 50bp hike in the policy... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Duque victory, but tax cuts could be delayed The victory for business-friendly candidate Iván Duque in Colombia’s presidential election looks largely priced in and should have a limited impact on local markets in the coming days. Investors will... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile to shift into tightening mode in next 6-9 months The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% was slightly less dovish than its last, supporting our view that the central bank will shift... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: IMF deal imposes ambitious fiscal targets Confirmation that Argentina has reached an agreement with the IMF over a financing package will help to restore investor confidence and provide a much-needed anchor for the country’s necessary... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Real’s fate now lies with political developments The fall in the real over the past couple of months means that, judged on macroeconomic fundamentals at least, the currency no longer looks overvalued. The big risk over the next six months is that... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico tariffs raise tensions The direct effect of Mexico’s new tariffs on imports from the US will be moderate. But the move will make the process of renegotiating Nafta even more difficult. The peso has fallen sharply in... 5th June 2018 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What do higher oil prices mean for Latin America? The rise in oil prices over the past six-nine months will have a mixed effect on economies in Latin America, with Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador the biggest winners, and Chile the biggest loser. 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil truckers’ strike: no cause for alarm bells just yet The truck drivers’ strike that has paralysed large swathes of Brazil’s economy over the past nine days has generated some apocalyptic headlines and led many forecasters to slash their 2018 GDP growth... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Duque on course to inherit strengthening economy The victory for centre-right candidate Iván Duque in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday was largely expected and, as such, has had little impact on local financial markets... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Pulling down our currency forecasts We expected 2018 to be a year of weakness for Latin American currencies, but the recent falls against the dollar have pushed a number of exchange rates through our year-end forecasts already. We’re... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina not (yet) facing a public debt crisis Despite the near-25% drop in the peso against the dollar so far this year, Argentina is not yet facing a sovereign debt crisis. The public debt ratio will rise this year, but not to an alarming level... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Maduro 2.0: messy debt default on the cards The victory for Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela’s presidential election paves the way for an escalation of US sanctions – possibly on the oil sector – and a messy sovereign debt default and restructuring... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Duque presidency mean for Colombia? Centre-right candidate Iván Duque looks set to win the first round of Colombia’s presidential election next week, and if he also prevails in the second round – as seems likely – he will inherit an... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How can Argentina get out of its crisis? The lesson from EMs that have been forced to turn to the IMF for financial support in the past is that Argentina will need a combination of front-loaded fiscal tightening, reforms at the central bank... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Does the Argentine peso have much further to fall? Following its near-20% drop so far this year, Argentina’s real effective exchange rate looks pretty close to its ‘fair’ value – we estimate that it probably needs to fall by a modest 5% or so from... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
