Latin America Economics Update Underlying inflation in Brazil still soft The sharp jump in headline inflation in Brazil over the past month has masked continued weakness in core inflation. And underlying price pressures should remain fairly subdued over the next 12-18... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate hikes on the horizon in Chile The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% provided the clearest sign yet that policymakers are moving towards tightening. This supports... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s inflation expectations becoming unanchored There is growing evidence that, despite Banxico’s best efforts, inflation expectations in Mexico are becoming unanchored. One consequence is that the monetary policy debate over the coming months will... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil’s recovery? The hit to the Brazilian economy from May’s truck drivers’ strike already seems to be reversing. But the recent tightening of financial conditions means the recovery over the second half of the year... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Financial conditions tighten in key economies Argentina’s currency crisis has caused financial conditions there to tighten sharply in the past few months, and this is one reason why we expect the economy to fall into recession in the coming... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: what to watch after Amlo’s resounding victory The conciliatory tone of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo’s) speeches following his convincing presidential election victory has been relatively well-received by the markets. But it’s worth... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More to Chile’s short-term debt than meets the eye Chile’s short-term external debt burden is one of the largest in the emerging world, but there is more to it than meets the eye. A large chunk reflects intercompany lending, and most of this is... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update FX sell-off to trigger hike in Mexico, but Brazil to hold The latest sell-off in the Mexican peso tips the balance towards policy being tightened at Thursday’s central bank meeting. We’re changing our forecast and now expect a 50bp hike in the policy... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Duque victory, but tax cuts could be delayed The victory for business-friendly candidate Iván Duque in Colombia’s presidential election looks largely priced in and should have a limited impact on local markets in the coming days. Investors will... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile to shift into tightening mode in next 6-9 months The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% was slightly less dovish than its last, supporting our view that the central bank will shift... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: IMF deal imposes ambitious fiscal targets Confirmation that Argentina has reached an agreement with the IMF over a financing package will help to restore investor confidence and provide a much-needed anchor for the country’s necessary... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Real’s fate now lies with political developments The fall in the real over the past couple of months means that, judged on macroeconomic fundamentals at least, the currency no longer looks overvalued. The big risk over the next six months is that... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico tariffs raise tensions The direct effect of Mexico’s new tariffs on imports from the US will be moderate. But the move will make the process of renegotiating Nafta even more difficult. The peso has fallen sharply in... 5th June 2018 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What do higher oil prices mean for Latin America? The rise in oil prices over the past six-nine months will have a mixed effect on economies in Latin America, with Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador the biggest winners, and Chile the biggest loser. 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil truckers’ strike: no cause for alarm bells just yet The truck drivers’ strike that has paralysed large swathes of Brazil’s economy over the past nine days has generated some apocalyptic headlines and led many forecasters to slash their 2018 GDP growth... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Duque on course to inherit strengthening economy The victory for centre-right candidate Iván Duque in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday was largely expected and, as such, has had little impact on local financial markets... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
