Latin America Economics Update Chile: Tightening cycle to be quicker than most expect The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to increase its policy rate by 25bp last night to 2.75%, suggested that a gradual tightening cycle would lie in store over the next 12-18... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Amlo’s policy proposals The platform of Mexico’s president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) has become clearer in recent weeks and a sudden lurch to the left when he takes office in December seems unlikely. One... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies to provide only a modest boost The falls in most Latin American currencies this year have improved competiveness, but the conditions don’t seem to be in place for this to translate into a significant increase in net exports. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro boost to hit political realities The strong showing for Jair Bolsonaro and his party in yesterday’s general election in Brazil has increased the chances of pro-market reform. This is likely to prompt an initial rally in local markets... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s markets look too sanguine on political risk The rally in Brazilian markets this week on polls showing a rise in support for right-wing presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro suggests that the political risk premium being priced in has declined... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update When will the BCB shift to tightening? The timing of the Brazilian central bank’s first interest rate hike is likely to be determined by politics as much as economics. There’s a lot of uncertainty related to the outcome of the Presidential... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: the new Nafta, Amlo and receding policy risks The announcement of a trilateral trade deal with the US and Canada removes one major source of uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s outlook. The focus will increasingly shift onto the policies of... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How bad is Brazil’s consumer slowdown? The slowdown in Brazilian retail sales growth in the last few months looks alarming, but there are reasons to think that any weakness in overall consumer spending will be more modest. 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s revised IMF deal The larger-than-expected increase in the size of Argentina’s revamped IMF credit line reduces debt rollover risks and is likely to lead to a rally in local markets when they open later today. The... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to look for in Argentina’s new IMF deal With Argentina reportedly set to announce a new and improved IMF credit line later today, in this Update we outline what investors should look out for in the deal. 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican inflation to resume its decline Today’s softer-than-expected inflation data from Mexico, which showed that price pressures were unchanged in the first half of this month, supports our view that the headline rate will resume its... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank preparing the ground for tightening The statement that accompanied the Brazilian Central Bank’s meeting last night provided the first clear sign that it is preparing to tighten monetary conditions, with the first rate hike likely to... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s 2019 budget: devil is in the detail Argentina’s 2019 federal budget presented to Congress last night contains a large fiscal squeeze and, if implemented in full, would stabilise the public debt ratio. However, some key IMF requests have... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tightening cycles in the Andes to begin soon The Andean economies of Chile, Peru, and Colombia all appear to be close to raising interest rates. In this Update, we take a closer look at what has triggered central banks to begin tightening cycles... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The recent turmoil in local markets means that Argentina’s recession will be even deeper than we previously anticipated. We now expect a 4% drop in GDP over 2018 as a whole (vs. -0.5% previously), and... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile prepares the ground for rate hikes The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% flagged that a tightening cycle will begin in the coming months. We remain comfortable with... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
