Latin America Economics Update BCB takes a dovish turn The Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) statement from last night’s meeting suggests that interest rates will be left unchanged over the next few months at least. We think a tightening cycle will start... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Election not a reason to expect Mexican growth to slow Mexican economic growth has weakened after all but one presidential election since 1950, and there have been growing suggestions that the recent change of government could cause growth to weaken next... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: is energy reform now dead? The decision by Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) to seemingly postpone Mexico’s deep water oil auctions for three years is unlikely to have a major bearing on oil production in the near term. But it... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Tightening cycle to be quicker than most expect The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.75% last night suggested that this was only a brief pause in its tightening cycle. We continue to think that... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension reform: what’s at stake? Brazil’s incoming government has given little detail about its proposed (and much-needed) reforms to the country’s pension system. But stabilising the public debt ratio would require reform at the... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lower fuel inflation to be offset by rising food inflation Oil prices are up today, but the recent decline means that inflation will rise more slowly in Latin America over the next few months than we had previously thought. We still expect a majority of... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Amlo: five things that would signal further populist shift Having struck a business-friendly tone after his election, Mexico’s president elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador has more recently begun to unnerve investors. Ahead of his inauguration on Saturday... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso’s vulnerabilities back in the spotlight A range of factors, including a fall in soybean prices, expectations of central bank intervention and political risk, appears to best explain the recent drop in the Argentine peso against the dollar... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine austerity drive a first step on long road ahead Having already hit the IMF’s primary deficit target for this year, Argentine policymakers have made impressive progress on fiscal tightening. But the squeeze so far accounts for only a third of the... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five questions on Colombia’s tax reform The tax reform introduced to Colombia’s congress is unlikely to pass in its current form, but even a diluted version would result in tighter fiscal policy, higher inflation and, ultimately, more... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: soft labour market temporary, rates to rise further The recent uptick in Chilean unemployment has prompted some analysts to suggest that interest rates may not rise much further. But the central bank doesn’t seem too concerned and we think that any... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s FX reserve plan doesn’t stack up Concerns that “super minister” Paulo Guedes’ plan to reduce the Brazilian government’s interest payments by selling FX reserves would increase external vulnerabilities look overdone. However, the plan... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCB on hold until Bolsonaro’s reform plans take shape The Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) statement from last night’s meeting hints that Copom is waiting to see if president-elect Jair Bolsonaro can deliver on his reform promise when he takes office at... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Amlo starting to show his true colours The direct impact on Mexico’s economy resulting from president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s decision to scrap the Texcoco airport project will be small, but it is the clearest sign yet that... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro’s victory: three things to watch now Comments from Brazil’s president-elect suggesting that the central bank should target the exchange rate have made headlines today but his post-election comments otherwise point to orthodox... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further weakness in the Colombian peso ahead The Colombian peso has fallen by more than other Latin American currencies since August, and we expect a further underperformance over the next two years as oil prices fall, balance sheet... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
