Latin America Economics Update Mexican inflation to resume its decline Today’s softer-than-expected inflation data from Mexico, which showed that price pressures were unchanged in the first half of this month, supports our view that the headline rate will resume its... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank preparing the ground for tightening The statement that accompanied the Brazilian Central Bank’s meeting last night provided the first clear sign that it is preparing to tighten monetary conditions, with the first rate hike likely to... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s 2019 budget: devil is in the detail Argentina’s 2019 federal budget presented to Congress last night contains a large fiscal squeeze and, if implemented in full, would stabilise the public debt ratio. However, some key IMF requests have... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tightening cycles in the Andes to begin soon The Andean economies of Chile, Peru, and Colombia all appear to be close to raising interest rates. In this Update, we take a closer look at what has triggered central banks to begin tightening cycles... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The recent turmoil in local markets means that Argentina’s recession will be even deeper than we previously anticipated. We now expect a 4% drop in GDP over 2018 as a whole (vs. -0.5% previously), and... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile prepares the ground for rate hikes The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% flagged that a tightening cycle will begin in the coming months. We remain comfortable with... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: how close is a sovereign default? The recent collapse in the Argentine peso has raised concerns about a sovereign default. As things stand, we think it’s most likely that the government will be able to service its upcoming debts. That... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt: what are the crunch points? The Argentine government’s announcement that it wants to draw on more of its IMF bailout package reflects the harsh reality of large upcoming FX debt repayments, especially in November. But the... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in Chile and Peru to hold up well The surge in GDP growth in Q2 to more than 5% in Chile and Peru probably marks the peak in both countries’ economic cycle. But there is still some spare capacity left. And, as a result, we expect that... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US trade deal a win for Mexico The preliminary bilateral trade deal between Mexico and the US, announced yesterday, is a far cry from the radical overhaul of the two countries’ trading relationship that many had feared. Tighter... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update US-Mexico trade deals shows compromise is possible Today’s announcement of a bilateral trade agreement is definitely good news for Mexico and the US, but could be good or very bad for Canada. More generally, it illustrates that, despite the Trump... 27th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Mexico inflation to head in opposite directions Inflation in both Brazil and Mexico has been a bit higher than we had anticipated over the past few weeks, but we think the broad trend over the next year or so will be up in Brazil, and down in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s banks in good shape Turkey’s currency crisis, which could cause problems in its banking sector, has put the spotlight on EM banking vulnerabilities more generally. But while we had concerns about the health of Latin... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s central bank moving in right direction Argentina’s central bank announced a tweak to its monetary policy framework last night which, in time, should help it to gain better control over monetary conditions. It also appears to have stopped... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank looking through inflation spike The slightly more dovish language in the Brazilian central bank’s post-meeting statement adds weight to our view that policymakers are untroubled by the recent spike in inflation. And while a... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian sol to outperform most EM currencies The Peruvian sol has, despite the emergence of several headwinds, held up surprisingly well over the past few months. While we expect most currencies in the emerging world to weaken over the next 12... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
