Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to Latin America’s elections The pandemic has created fertile ground for populists to win presidential elections in Ecuador, Chile and Peru this year. That would have the biggest adverse market reaction in the former, and could... 7th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: dovish tilt suggests easing cycle to resume In typically conservative fashion, Banxico’s left its policy rate at 4.25% despite the weakness of inflation and the deteriorating near-term outlook. However, the dovish statement reaffirms our view... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five things to watch for in 2021 Latin America will be glad to see the back of 2020, although 2021 will hardly be plain sailing. In general, the hangover from weak public finances will hold back the region’s economic recovery... 10th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom (slowly) laying the ground for tightening The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision (to keep the Selic rate at 2.00%) suggests that it is starting to consider interest rate hikes. But we think the shift towards monetary... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Vaccines to deliver healthy dose of support to Lat Am Given the recent positive vaccine developments, we are revising up our GDP forecasts across the region. Among the major economies, Chile and Mexico are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries while... 3rd December 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the state of recoveries in Latin America A fresh rise in COVID-19 cases in Brazil and Mexico threaten to derail their recoveries in late-Q4 and Q1. On the flipside, the near-term outlook is relatively bright in Argentina, Peru and Chile. 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA vs. the Argentine peso: what next? Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) is running out of FX reserves to prop up the peso and it may soon devalue the currency. Even so, it would take an overhaul of the monetary policy setup, probably under... 19th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: decision to hold not the end of the easing cycle The communications accompanying the Mexican central bank’s decision to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% suggest that there may still be scope for one more cut in the easing cycle. While it’s... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Peru’s latest political crisis The impeachment of Peru’s president, Martín Vizcarra, has rattled the country’s financial markets and may pave the way for looser (and more populist) fiscal measures in the coming months. Given the... 11th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latest surveys suggest Brazil remains ahead of Mexico We think that the latest activity surveys for October may be overstating growth in Brazil, although they reinforce the view that its economy remains ahead of Mexico at this stage of the recovery. 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update US election & Latin America: what’s at stake? The result of Tuesday’s US election is unlikely to be as important for Mexico as it was four years ago, with domestic factors remaining key to its bleak economic outlook. However, Biden’s climate... 2nd November 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom still in a (mostly) dovish mood The tone of the Brazilian central bank’s statement from yesterday’s meeting (at which the Selic rate was kept at 2.00%) was a little less dovish than the previous one. But it still provides plenty of... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The potential fallout from Chile’s referendum The overwhelming vote in favour of rewriting Chile’s constitution will set the ball rolling towards entrenching a larger role of the state in the economy. And it may cause the central bank to adopt a... 26th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru to benefit most from China’s recovery Latin America’s non-oil economies will see larger benefits than most other countries from China’s rebound. This provides grounds for cautious optimism about the prospects for Chile and Peru. But for... 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Dim outlook for Argentina’s crushed economy With new virus cases still high, capital controls more pervasive, and fiscal policy unlikely to stay loose, we are nudging down our Argentina GDP forecasts. We now expect an 11% drop this year and... 23rd September 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s food inflation spike won’t trouble the BCB Rising food inflation in Brazil is likely to remain a cause for concern among politicians over the rest of the year, but with core inflation extremely weak, it’s not going to spook the central bank... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
