Latin America Economics Update Chile: Stronger recovery to keep BCC on the side-lines Chile’s economy is recovering more quickly than we had previously expected and, as a result, we are revising up our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -5.5% (previously -7.0%). The stronger rebound has eased... 10th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to make of Mexico’s 2021 budget The frugal 2021 budget proposed by Mexico’s government underlines policymakers’ fixation about public debt risks and concerns about their credit rating. Meeting policymakers’ new and ambitious targets... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s Covid crisis: over the worst? While the number of new coronavirus cases in Brazil remains extremely high, strains in the country’s health care system have eased significantly in recent weeks, reducing the risk of fresh lockdowns... 8th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in dire straits, but reasons for cautious optimism The latest data suggest that, after one of the world’s steepest economic declines in Q2, Peru’s recovery is already stalling against a backdrop of high and rising new coronavirus cases. But for those... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Argentina’s debt deal The completion of a deal to restructure almost all $66.2bn of Argentina’s international sovereign bonds will give the government some much-needed breathing space over the coming years, as will an... 1st September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s recovery set to weaken The latest data suggest that Brazil’s recovery so far has been quicker than we expected, which has prompted us to revise up our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -5.0% (previously -7.0%). However, tighter... 19th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker Mexican inflation to drive more Banxico cuts Headline inflation in Mexico looks set to fall towards 3% over the coming months as both food and core inflation soften. We think that will give Banxico scope to cut its policy rate by an additional... 18th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: fledgling recovery may already be stalling The 14.9% q/q slump in Colombian GDP in Q2 is not quite there among the worst outturns in the EM world, but it’s not far off. More worryingly, mobility data suggest that the nascent economic recovery... 17th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What Mexico’s current account means for the peso We expect that Mexico’s current account deficit will narrow, and could even turn to a small surplus, over the rest of the year as a strong goods surplus outweighs weaker remittance inflows. That... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: low rates here to stay The 25bp cut in the Selic rate, to 2.00%, at last night’s Brazilian central bank meeting probably marks the last reduction in the cycle, but the accompanying statement supports our view that rates... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s pension bill: the economic & market impact Reforms in Chile that allow households to withdraw some of their pension savings may help to boost the economic recovery over the next year. But the way in which the reform was passed adds to the... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s tax reform push a step in the right direction The push by Brazil’s government to change the tax system provides a welcome sign that the government’s reform agenda is still progressing, despite the political infighting caused by the handling of... 22nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Industry weighing on Mexico’s economy The struggles in Mexico’s industrial sector suggests that GDP fell by around 20% q/q in Q2. And the weak prospects for the sector will dampen Mexico’s economic recovery over the coming quarters. 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: breathing room, but long fight still ahead The debt restructuring deal provisionally agreed between Ecuador’s government and a group of its creditors would, if implemented, ease near-term pressures on the public finances. But we are more... 13th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update More evidence of major fiscal damage After blowing out in April, budget deficits in Latin America remained wide in May. And while a pick-up in economic activity should help tax revenues to recover and social welfare spending to ease over... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the recovery in Latin America The latest surveys and high-frequency data suggest that Latin America’s economic recovery finally started to firm up in June. But it is still lagging other EM regions – and Chile’s recovery is yet to... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
