Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Peru’s latest political crisis The impeachment of Peru’s president, Martín Vizcarra, has rattled the country’s financial markets and may pave the way for looser (and more populist) fiscal measures in the coming months. Given the... 11th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latest surveys suggest Brazil remains ahead of Mexico We think that the latest activity surveys for October may be overstating growth in Brazil, although they reinforce the view that its economy remains ahead of Mexico at this stage of the recovery. 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update US election & Latin America: what’s at stake? The result of Tuesday’s US election is unlikely to be as important for Mexico as it was four years ago, with domestic factors remaining key to its bleak economic outlook. However, Biden’s climate... 2nd November 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom still in a (mostly) dovish mood The tone of the Brazilian central bank’s statement from yesterday’s meeting (at which the Selic rate was kept at 2.00%) was a little less dovish than the previous one. But it still provides plenty of... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The potential fallout from Chile’s referendum The overwhelming vote in favour of rewriting Chile’s constitution will set the ball rolling towards entrenching a larger role of the state in the economy. And it may cause the central bank to adopt a... 26th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru to benefit most from China’s recovery Latin America’s non-oil economies will see larger benefits than most other countries from China’s rebound. This provides grounds for cautious optimism about the prospects for Chile and Peru. But for... 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Dim outlook for Argentina’s crushed economy With new virus cases still high, capital controls more pervasive, and fiscal policy unlikely to stay loose, we are nudging down our Argentina GDP forecasts. We now expect an 11% drop this year and... 23rd September 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s food inflation spike won’t trouble the BCB Rising food inflation in Brazil is likely to remain a cause for concern among politicians over the rest of the year, but with core inflation extremely weak, it’s not going to spook the central bank... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Selic rate to stay low for longer than most expect The dovish tone of the Brazilian central bank’s statement from yesterday’s meeting (at which the Selic rate was left at 2.00%) supports our view that the policy rate will remain at its current... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Four questions on Peru’s (latest) political crisis Votes due this week by Peru’s congress on whether to impeach the president and to censure (remove) the finance minister will likely be close calls and could leave a power vacuum. That said, history... 14th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Stronger recovery to keep BCC on the side-lines Chile’s economy is recovering more quickly than we had previously expected and, as a result, we are revising up our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -5.5% (previously -7.0%). The stronger rebound has eased... 10th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to make of Mexico’s 2021 budget The frugal 2021 budget proposed by Mexico’s government underlines policymakers’ fixation about public debt risks and concerns about their credit rating. Meeting policymakers’ new and ambitious targets... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s Covid crisis: over the worst? While the number of new coronavirus cases in Brazil remains extremely high, strains in the country’s health care system have eased significantly in recent weeks, reducing the risk of fresh lockdowns... 8th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in dire straits, but reasons for cautious optimism The latest data suggest that, after one of the world’s steepest economic declines in Q2, Peru’s recovery is already stalling against a backdrop of high and rising new coronavirus cases. But for those... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Argentina’s debt deal The completion of a deal to restructure almost all $66.2bn of Argentina’s international sovereign bonds will give the government some much-needed breathing space over the coming years, as will an... 1st September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s recovery set to weaken The latest data suggest that Brazil’s recovery so far has been quicker than we expected, which has prompted us to revise up our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -5.0% (previously -7.0%). However, tighter... 19th August 2020 · 4 mins read
