Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the election surprises in Ecuador & Peru The surprising victory for conservative Guillermo Lasso in Ecuador’s presidential election increases the chances that public debt will be put onto a sustainable path, and will probably boost the... 12th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: infections, vaccines and the recovery While Chile is currently battling with a severe wave of virus cases, we remain cautiously optimistic about the resilience of the economy in Q2, and the prospect of a vaccine-related boost to output... 8th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico begins a long pause The unanimous decision by Banxico’s Board to keep its policy rate at 4.00% is a clear signal that its easing cycle is done and dusted. While this indicates a cautious shift at the central bank, we... 26th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s fiscal U-turn to support the recovery The Colombian government’s shift away from its austere fiscal stance will lead to higher public debt and, more likely than not, a loss of its sovereign investment grade rating. But, from an economic... 11th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Lula ruling, Brazil’s debt problem and the BCB The annulment of left-wing former President Lula’s criminal convictions has significantly increased the likelihood of a looser fiscal stance, which could put Brazil’s public debt back onto an... 9th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s COVID-19 outbreak putting recovery on ice The growing strains in Brazil’s health system caused by the latest COVID-19 outbreak are likely to result in a further tightening of containment measures in the coming days, hitting the economic... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Staying relatively upbeat on Peru’s economy The strong Q4 GDP data for Peru suggests that the economy was heading into 2021 with significant momentum. And while there are growing downside risks from rising COVID-19 cases and a politically... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Four points on the Petrobras debacle The Brazilian president’s decision to sack the Petrobras CEO last Friday points to greater government intervention in the economy and could be a prelude to a looser fiscal stance too. This suggests... 22nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: the next fallen angel? It’s unlikely that Colombia’s government will achieve its lofty fiscal targets over the coming years, which may prompt a loss of its investment grade rating – an outcome that is not fully priced into... 18th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Another look at Brazil’s fiscal problem The discussion in Brazil around extending emergency fiscal support reinforces our view that the government will ultimately cast aside the spending cap. That could put the public debt trajectory onto... 17th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico in a dovish mood but additional cuts unlikely The unanimous decision by Banxico’s Board to cuts its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.00%, suggests that policymakers are more dovish than we had thought. But the initial market reaction – significantly... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Latin America’s vaccine rollout Chile is motoring ahead in Latin America’s vaccine race and it may be on course to start lifting stringent lockdown measures by mid-Q2. Other countries may follow suit in Q3, which feeds into our... 11th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Second waves take steam out of Latin America’s recovery The latest high-frequency and survey data suggest that the region’s economic recovery slowed in January, with Colombia seemingly faring worst. That said, the early signs are that the economic fallout... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador election: all eyes on debt risks There seems to be little appetite for harsh IMF-mandated fiscal austerity among the leading candidates in Ecuador’s presidential election this week. The public finances will therefore remain in dire... 2nd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom unlikely to hike rates as much as most expect The Brazilian central bank’s decision to remove its forward guidance at last night’s meeting indicates that Copom is preparing the ground to raise interest rates. But we doubt that policymakers will... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Three key challenges for Brazil in 2021 Brazil was Latin America’s economic outperformer last year, but the outlook for this year is increasingly challenging and we expect that the economy will fall behind its regional peers in the coming... 20th January 2021 · 4 mins read
