Latin America Economics Update Colombia: the next fallen angel? It’s unlikely that Colombia’s government will achieve its lofty fiscal targets over the coming years, which may prompt a loss of its investment grade rating – an outcome that is not fully priced into... 18th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Another look at Brazil’s fiscal problem The discussion in Brazil around extending emergency fiscal support reinforces our view that the government will ultimately cast aside the spending cap. That could put the public debt trajectory onto... 17th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico in a dovish mood but additional cuts unlikely The unanimous decision by Banxico’s Board to cuts its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.00%, suggests that policymakers are more dovish than we had thought. But the initial market reaction – significantly... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Latin America’s vaccine rollout Chile is motoring ahead in Latin America’s vaccine race and it may be on course to start lifting stringent lockdown measures by mid-Q2. Other countries may follow suit in Q3, which feeds into our... 11th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Second waves take steam out of Latin America’s recovery The latest high-frequency and survey data suggest that the region’s economic recovery slowed in January, with Colombia seemingly faring worst. That said, the early signs are that the economic fallout... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador election: all eyes on debt risks There seems to be little appetite for harsh IMF-mandated fiscal austerity among the leading candidates in Ecuador’s presidential election this week. The public finances will therefore remain in dire... 2nd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom unlikely to hike rates as much as most expect The Brazilian central bank’s decision to remove its forward guidance at last night’s meeting indicates that Copom is preparing the ground to raise interest rates. But we doubt that policymakers will... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Three key challenges for Brazil in 2021 Brazil was Latin America’s economic outperformer last year, but the outlook for this year is increasingly challenging and we expect that the economy will fall behind its regional peers in the coming... 20th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to Latin America’s elections The pandemic has created fertile ground for populists to win presidential elections in Ecuador, Chile and Peru this year. That would have the biggest adverse market reaction in the former, and could... 7th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: dovish tilt suggests easing cycle to resume In typically conservative fashion, Banxico’s left its policy rate at 4.25% despite the weakness of inflation and the deteriorating near-term outlook. However, the dovish statement reaffirms our view... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five things to watch for in 2021 Latin America will be glad to see the back of 2020, although 2021 will hardly be plain sailing. In general, the hangover from weak public finances will hold back the region’s economic recovery... 10th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom (slowly) laying the ground for tightening The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision (to keep the Selic rate at 2.00%) suggests that it is starting to consider interest rate hikes. But we think the shift towards monetary... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Vaccines to deliver healthy dose of support to Lat Am Given the recent positive vaccine developments, we are revising up our GDP forecasts across the region. Among the major economies, Chile and Mexico are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries while... 3rd December 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the state of recoveries in Latin America A fresh rise in COVID-19 cases in Brazil and Mexico threaten to derail their recoveries in late-Q4 and Q1. On the flipside, the near-term outlook is relatively bright in Argentina, Peru and Chile. 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA vs. the Argentine peso: what next? Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) is running out of FX reserves to prop up the peso and it may soon devalue the currency. Even so, it would take an overhaul of the monetary policy setup, probably under... 19th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: decision to hold not the end of the easing cycle The communications accompanying the Mexican central bank’s decision to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% suggest that there may still be scope for one more cut in the easing cycle. While it’s... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
