Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the political risks in Chile Chilean financial assets have been hit hard following the Constitutional Convention election, and this Update outlines three key political risks which could keep local markets under pressure over the... 27th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How big a threat is Brazil’s drought to the recovery? For now, it seems unlikely that the drought affecting Brazil will hit hydropower production hard enough to cause disruptions to electricity supply and broader economic activity. But the drought does... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am: taking stock of the latest virus developments The latest COVID-19 outbreaks in Latin America have passed their peak and the near-term outlook is improving. But, with the probable exception of Chile, the latest developments reinforce the message... 18th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico statement points to a long pause The statement accompanying the Banxico Board’s decision to keep the policy rate at 4.00% suggests that policymakers’ concerns about inflation risks are growing, but it doesn’t change our view that... 14th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Colombia’s fiscal drama Recent protests have pushed Colombia’s government away from the fiscal reforms that are needed to reduce the public debt ratio in the coming years. It’s therefore likely that the sovereign will lose... 10th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom turning increasingly hawkish The statement accompanying Brazil’s central bank meeting, at which it raised the Selic rate by 75bp to 3.50%, was more hawkish than the previous one. While we doubt that the tightening cycle will go... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Three is not the magic number in Chile The third round of pension withdrawals in Chile will help to boost its economic recovery in the near term, but is unlikely to be as impactful as the previous two. The broader concern is that it... 29th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Q2 already looking shaky Worsening virus outbreaks and tighter lockdown measures are weighing on economic recoveries across Latin America, particularly in Brazil and Chile. Rapid progress with vaccinations may allow Chile’s... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the election surprises in Ecuador & Peru The surprising victory for conservative Guillermo Lasso in Ecuador’s presidential election increases the chances that public debt will be put onto a sustainable path, and will probably boost the... 12th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: infections, vaccines and the recovery While Chile is currently battling with a severe wave of virus cases, we remain cautiously optimistic about the resilience of the economy in Q2, and the prospect of a vaccine-related boost to output... 8th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico begins a long pause The unanimous decision by Banxico’s Board to keep its policy rate at 4.00% is a clear signal that its easing cycle is done and dusted. While this indicates a cautious shift at the central bank, we... 26th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s fiscal U-turn to support the recovery The Colombian government’s shift away from its austere fiscal stance will lead to higher public debt and, more likely than not, a loss of its sovereign investment grade rating. But, from an economic... 11th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Lula ruling, Brazil’s debt problem and the BCB The annulment of left-wing former President Lula’s criminal convictions has significantly increased the likelihood of a looser fiscal stance, which could put Brazil’s public debt back onto an... 9th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s COVID-19 outbreak putting recovery on ice The growing strains in Brazil’s health system caused by the latest COVID-19 outbreak are likely to result in a further tightening of containment measures in the coming days, hitting the economic... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Staying relatively upbeat on Peru’s economy The strong Q4 GDP data for Peru suggests that the economy was heading into 2021 with significant momentum. And while there are growing downside risks from rising COVID-19 cases and a politically... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Four points on the Petrobras debacle The Brazilian president’s decision to sack the Petrobras CEO last Friday points to greater government intervention in the economy and could be a prelude to a looser fiscal stance too. This suggests... 22nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
