Latin America Economics Update Argentina & the IMF: deal or no deal? Although the Argentine government and the IMF do not fully see eye-to-eye, there have been signs of progress in negotiations and we think it’s most likely that they will sign a fresh agreement within... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: five key calls for 2022 We think that Latin American GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2022, while inflation will also drop more a bit more quickly than the consensus anticipates. This feeds into our... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s election: first thoughts on Boric’s victory Gabriel Boric’s victory in Chile’s presidential election is another sign that the country is moving towards greater state intervention in the economy. A radical shift in policymaking seems unlikely... 20th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico starting to act tough on inflation Banxico added to this week’s global central banking bonanza with a surprise 50bp hike, to 5.50%, and the widespread hawkish shift on the Board suggests that policymakers will act more aggressively to... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank takes another hawkish step Chile’s central bank raised its policy rate by another 125bp yesterday, to 4.00%, and the accompanying statement, alongside today’s Monetary Policy Report, suggest that its tightening cycle will be... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am’s recovery falling behind other EMs The recent batch of GDP figures showed that growth in Latin America as a whole picked up in Q3, but the region’s recovery so far has been one of the weakest in the emerging world. And growth prospects... 13th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: chunky rate hikes to go on despite recession Brazil’s central bank gave a clear steer that, even though the economy entered recession in Q3 and shows little sign of growth in Q4, it will follow the 150bp hike in the Selic rate yesterday (to 9.25... 9th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Red-hot Chile set to cool Chile’s economy has been operating above potential for several months but there are signs that activity is starting to cool. And policy tightening, falls in copper prices and the possibility of more... 1st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the oddities in Mexican GDP The final estimate of Mexican Q3 GDP data was revised down to a 0.4% q/q fall (original -0.2% q/q), but the breakdown showed the contraction was almost entirely due to an outsourcing law that hit... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to Chile’s election The frontrunners in Sunday’s presidential election in Chile, Gabriel Boric and José Antonio Kast, hold different views on the desired size of the state in the economy, but both advocate relatively... 18th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A fresh look at fiscal positions in Latin America Fiscal balances have generally improved across Latin America this year (barring Chile and Colombia) but we think that governments in most major economies will struggle to implement the substantial... 17th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Higher rates quickly adding to Brazil’s fiscal challenge By next year, Brazil’s public sector interest payments could be almost twice as large (at ~8% of GDP) as they were in 2020, making the challenge of stabilising the public debt-to-GDP ratio all the... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico sticking to gradual pace of tightening The Mexican central bank’s 25bp rate hike, to 5.00%, and the accompanying statement showed little sign that policymakers are likely to follow their peers in Latin America by upping the pace of... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s election: approaching a fork in the road The ruling Frente de Todos (FdT) coalition is likely to lose some of its power in congress in Argentina’s midterm elections on Sunday. Policymaking could subsequently go in one of two ways. Our... 10th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update We expect the Brazilian real to remain under pressure We think that the Brazilian real will weaken a bit further against the US dollar over the next year, as fiscal risks and deteriorating terms of trade continue to weigh on the currency. In view of the... 4th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Does Brazil’s inverted yield curve point to a recession? Brazil’s inverted yield curve has raised concerns that the economy may be on the brink of a recession, but it doesn’t have a particularly good track record as a leading indicator for economic... 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
