Latin America Economics Update Less to Brazil’s investment boom than meets the eye Fixed investment in Brazil rose at one of its fastest rates in the last 50 years in 2021 which, while a positive development, was driven by factors that are unlikely to be sustained. Fixed investment... 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom nears the end of the cycle but still hawkish The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank meeting yesterday, at which the Selic rate was hiked by 150bp to 10.75%, made clear that policymakers will slow the pace of tightening from here... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: few signs of green shoots After slipping into a technical recession at the back end of 2021, the latest surveys suggest that Mexico’s economy remains in a weak spot at the start of 2022 owing to Omicron-related disruption. 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Nudging up our Colombia rate forecast The surprisingly hawkish shift on Colombia’s central bank board at Friday’s meeting, when the policy rate was increased by 100bp to 4.00%, suggests that the tightening cycle will be more aggressive... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina agrees to new IMF deal The announcement by Argentine President Fernández that the government has reached a new agreement with the IMF, the 22nd in their history, will give some relief to international bondholders in the... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank not waiting around The decision by Chile’s central bank to deliver a surprisingly large 150bp rate hike yesterday, to 5.50%, supports our view that the tightening cycle will go further than the path it had previously... 27th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina & the IMF: deal or no deal? Although the Argentine government and the IMF do not fully see eye-to-eye, there have been signs of progress in negotiations and we think it’s most likely that they will sign a fresh agreement within... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: five key calls for 2022 We think that Latin American GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2022, while inflation will also drop more a bit more quickly than the consensus anticipates. This feeds into our... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s election: first thoughts on Boric’s victory Gabriel Boric’s victory in Chile’s presidential election is another sign that the country is moving towards greater state intervention in the economy. A radical shift in policymaking seems unlikely... 20th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico starting to act tough on inflation Banxico added to this week’s global central banking bonanza with a surprise 50bp hike, to 5.50%, and the widespread hawkish shift on the Board suggests that policymakers will act more aggressively to... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank takes another hawkish step Chile’s central bank raised its policy rate by another 125bp yesterday, to 4.00%, and the accompanying statement, alongside today’s Monetary Policy Report, suggest that its tightening cycle will be... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am’s recovery falling behind other EMs The recent batch of GDP figures showed that growth in Latin America as a whole picked up in Q3, but the region’s recovery so far has been one of the weakest in the emerging world. And growth prospects... 13th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: chunky rate hikes to go on despite recession Brazil’s central bank gave a clear steer that, even though the economy entered recession in Q3 and shows little sign of growth in Q4, it will follow the 150bp hike in the Selic rate yesterday (to 9.25... 9th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Red-hot Chile set to cool Chile’s economy has been operating above potential for several months but there are signs that activity is starting to cool. And policy tightening, falls in copper prices and the possibility of more... 1st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the oddities in Mexican GDP The final estimate of Mexican Q3 GDP data was revised down to a 0.4% q/q fall (original -0.2% q/q), but the breakdown showed the contraction was almost entirely due to an outsourcing law that hit... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to Chile’s election The frontrunners in Sunday’s presidential election in Chile, Gabriel Boric and José Antonio Kast, hold different views on the desired size of the state in the economy, but both advocate relatively... 18th November 2021 · 4 mins read
