Latin America Economics Update Colombia: 'Currency war' has only just begun A raft of measures announced by the Colombian authorities late last week are unlikely to have much impact on the value of the peso. In the absence of a drop in commodity prices, capital inflows are... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is Argentina about to change course? While the death of the powerful former President of Argentina, Nestor Kirchner, is sad news, speculation is mounting that it will lead to a brighter outlook for the economy. It is too soon to tell... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates on hold as currency concerns mount Last night, the Brazilian Central Bank held interest rates at 10.75% for the second consecutive month. Concerns about the strength of the real mean that rate hikes are off the agenda for the... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How should Brazil respond to capital inflows? The recent influx of foreign capital into Brazil is likely to be sustained over the coming months and quarters. But while this should ensure that the economy continues to grow at a decent pace, there... 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Learning to live with higher capital inflows Policymakers across the region are facing a tricky balancing act. On the one hand, capital inflows are likely to remain healthy over the coming months. Additional liquidity generated by further policy... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile responds to soaring peso Last night’s decision by the Central Bank of Chile (BCC) to slow the pace of monetary tightening was driven entirely by currency considerations. Fiscal policy will have to play a key role in managing... 15th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Higher commodity prices to bring fresh set of policy challenges We have nudged up our near-term projections for commodity prices in response to recent rises and as a result have revisited our forecasts for Latin America. Growth is still likely to slow next year... 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch: Markets unmoved by election uncertainty The Brazilian presidential election is set for a second round of voting on 31st October and the latest opinion polls suggest that it may be a tighter race than many had expected. While Dilma Rousseff... 13th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: BCRP pause, underlines gradual pace of rate hikes The Central Bank of Peru’s (BCRP’s) surprise decision to hold interest rates at 3.0% last night adds weight to our view that rate hikes will be gradual. We continue to expect rates to end next year at... 8th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation pushed up by food prices Although Brazilian inflation accelerated in September, the pick-up was driven by food prices. With the economy now growing at a sustainable rate, we expect the headline rate of inflation to remain at... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More bad news on Mexico's recovery September’s IMEF survey brought further evidence that Mexico’s recovery is starting to slow. We expect growth to dip to just 2.5% next year and interest rates to remain at their current record low of... 5th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch: Blow for Dilma as race goes to wire Brazil’s presidential election sprang into life yesterday after Dilma Rousseff failed to gain the 50% of votes needed to secure an outright victory in the first round of voting. She remains the... 4th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil on course for a weaker Q3 Today’s raft of data brought further evidence that the recent strength of the real is squeezing Brazilian manufacturers. With the Central Bank now much more relaxed about the outlook for inflation... 1st October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Brazil’s 'currency war' Last night’s warning by the Brazilian Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, that an ‘international currency war’ has broken out has grabbed some predictable headlines. We discussed the issue of rapid... 28th September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update President Chavez's popularity starts to wane This weekend’s elections provide the strongest evidence yet that Venezuela’s economic woes have begun to dent President Chavez’s popularity. All eyes are now on the 2012 presidential elections and... 27th September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian GDP growth is better than it looks Colombian Q2 GDP growth came in well below consensus, but in line with our forecast of 4.5% y/y. While global headwinds could cause the pace of growth to slow to around 3.0% in 2011, the mediumterm... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
