Global Markets Update Risk premia on Latin American assets may rise further Latin American assets have generally underperformed those elsewhere of late, in part driven by rising risk premia on the region’s assets. We think these risk premia may rise further over the coming... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What La Niña means for Latin America There is a growing chance of a La Niña weather pattern taking hold in the second half of this year. While the economic effects would depend on its severity and length, La Niña events tend to coincide... 20th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: room for interest rate cuts this year is narrowing The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today alongside the communications to yesterday’s policy meeting suggest that the easing cycle over the next few quarters will be stop-start... 19th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s energy sector at a turning point? Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s strong environmental credentials mean that a shift away from fossil fuels and towards renewables is likely during her tenure. We doubt that she’ll fully... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Answering your questions on Mexico’s election Our initial response to Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in Mexico’s presidential election can be found here. We also held a Drop-in earlier today. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed... 3rd June 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Sheinbaum presidency mean for Mexico? A victory for Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico’s election on Sunday is likely to see a continuation of Amlo’s generous social policies – which will also make Banxico’s fight against inflation harder. The... 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s bumper trade surplus set to shrink The sharp rise in Brazil’s goods exports and the widening of the trade surplus since 2019 have been a point of strength for the economy. But we think these will reverse course before long. This feeds... 21st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Andean economies on the recovery path The strong pick-up in Andean economies at the start of this year confirms that their painful rebalancing process has run its course. GDP growth will be stronger this year than last – unlike in Brazil... 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How will Mexico’s election affect nearshoring prospects? The policies of the Mexican presidential frontrunner, Claudia Sheinbaum, would provide a more supportive environment for the nearshoring of manufacturing supply chains. But we doubt that she’ll carry... 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The floods in southern Brazil: the economic impact The scale of the economic impact of the floods that have affected much of the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul will depend on how long it takes for the waters to recede and for reconstruction... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Slower easing cycle may not provide relief for the real Although the monetary easing cycle in Brazil is entering a much slower phase, we think the Brazilian real will remain under pressure against the dollar over the coming quarters. In view of wider... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.7% y/y in April, was mainly due to a fresh jump in agricultural inflation which masked a fall in core inflation. Still, there’s nothing in the data... 9th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: fiscal concerns return to the spotlight The Mexican government’s pre-election spending spree means that the next administration will have its work cut out to put the country’s public finances back onto a stable footing. Claudia Sheinbaum... 8th May 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Weakness in the Mexican peso may have further to go We think that the recent weakness in the Mexican peso was partly a symptom of stretched positioning. Given that risk premia still appear unusually low and the outlook for the “carry trade” is... 30th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Mexico’s oil export cuts won’t damage global supply Longstanding turmoil in Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, alongside newly announced export cuts, raise questions about the outlook for Mexico’s oil output. But it will not be a large enough... 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read