Latin America Economics Focus Mexico: Budget reforms only scratch the surface With policymakers across the globe in agreement on the dangers of early withdrawal of stimulus measures, plans to tighten fiscal policy in Mexico next year are likely to grab some headlines... 18th November 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Strong recovery to give way to a disappointing 2011 A combination of a strong recovery in the US and Asia, the recent pick-up in commodity prices and the resumption of capital inflows should ensure that Latin America’s economy expands at a healthy clip... 20th October 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Bubble, bubble toil and trouble? Concerns that super-loose monetary policy in the West will fuel a bubble in emerging market assets are beginning to mount. While we believe that capital flows to Latin America will ease over the... 2nd October 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What’s really happening to Argentine inflation? An alternative measure of Argentine inflation constructed from provincial level data suggests that inflation is actually running at around 11%, well above the current official INDEC figure of 5.9%. 15th September 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Don’t believe the data, Argentina is in deep recession While official data suggest that GDP grew by 2.6% y/y in Q1, our Argentina Activity Indicator suggests the economy actually contracted at an annual pace of 7.8%. We think GDP will shrink by 8% this... 14th July 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How can Venezuela cope with the fall in oil revenues? The decision of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez to nationalise more than 60 firms last month, including a Spanish bank, is a clear response to the effect that the collapse of oil prices has had on... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Green shoots lack deep roots While there are some welcome signs that the Latin American economy is no longer in free fall, a lasting return to positive growth remains some way off. And with investors apparently pricing in a... 11th May 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Heading for the worst recession since the 1930s We expect Latin America’s GDP to contract by 4% this year, the biggest decline since the Great Depression of the 1930s. What’s more, the region’s recovery will be much slower than those from previous... 11th March 2009 · 1 min read
