Latin America Economics Focus Taking stock of Argentina's inflation problem The IMF is in Buenos Aires this week on its second technical mission to assist the development of a new inflation index. It is difficult to accurately assess the starting point for discussions, but... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Venezuela approaching crunch time? While the rest of Latin America is experiencing bumper capital inflows, Venezuela is gripped by a dollar drought. With President Chavez seeking re-election in December 2012, there is a growing risk... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: managing the risks of abundance The near-term outlook for Brazil remains extremely good, in part due to the strength of capital inflows and a boom in domestic lending. But we are becoming increasingly concerned that both factors... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Emerging markets will not rescue the rest of the world Emerging market economies will continue to grow rapidly over the next few years. But with current account surpluses in most of Asia and among oil producers likely to remain high, this will not be of... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Two priorities for the Dilma administration Continuity is the word in Brazil. After a brief wobble last month, Dilma Rousseff eventually secured the presidency this weekend, defeating Jose Serra in a run-off yesterday. So far as economic policy... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can Colombia win its currency war? The recent rapid appreciation of the Colombian peso bears all the hallmarks of so-called ‘Dutch Disease’. But while policymakers are rightly concerned about the implications for the competitiveness of... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Capital controls back on the agenda Latin America’s floating currencies have bounced back strongly after a brief wobble in May and, with the notable exception of the Mexican peso, most now look expensive relative to ‘fair value’... 22nd September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Brazil's next president must focus on the savings shortfall From the perspective of economic policy, the over-riding priority for Brazil’s new president must be to raise the level of domestic savings. Without this, much-needed investment will have to be funded... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia: How should Santos build on Uribe’s legacy? Colombia had a relatively ‘good’ crisis but following his victory in Sunday’s election the new President, Juan Manuel Santos, will need to pursue aggressive supply-side reforms to mitigate the threat... 23rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia elections: Reasons not to fear a Mockus victory We think that concerns that the possible election of Antanas Mockus as President of Colombia could spark a sell-off in the markets are overdone. While his unorthodox approach may cause some market... 21st May 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Clinging to the coattails of China? Latin America has without doubt been one of the major beneficiaries of recent growth in China. But while exports to China have grown ten-fold over the past five years or so, this overstates the true... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Earthquake unlikely to derail Chilean economy Following the devastating earthquake in Chile on 27th February we have revisited our economic forecasts. But while activity in the hardest hit region of Bío-Bío has been heavily affected, we think... 1st April 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How quickly will Brazil raise interest rates? Last night’s decision to keep Brazilian interest rates unchanged at 8.75% was in line with our forecast but against that of the consensus, which had expected a 50bps hike. Yet the debate over the... 18th March 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Mexican inflation about to take off? A combination of one-off factors means that Mexican inflation is likely to accelerate in the first quarter of this year. But the large amount of spare capacity that has opened up over the past... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: primed for take-off or doomed to disappoint? The outlook for Brazil is good – but not as good as many investors now seem to believe. We expect the economic recovery to continue at a decent pace over the coming months. However, growth will... 13th January 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Three challenges facing emerging markets in 2010 Emerging markets have, on the whole, weathered the crisis in the global economy well. But 2010 will bring a fresh set of challenges. Overall, we think Asia is best placed to prosper, followed by Latin... 11th December 2009 · 1 min read
