Latin America Economics Focus Colombia: How should Santos build on Uribe’s legacy? Colombia had a relatively ‘good’ crisis but following his victory in Sunday’s election the new President, Juan Manuel Santos, will need to pursue aggressive supply-side reforms to mitigate the threat... 23rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia elections: Reasons not to fear a Mockus victory We think that concerns that the possible election of Antanas Mockus as President of Colombia could spark a sell-off in the markets are overdone. While his unorthodox approach may cause some market... 21st May 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Clinging to the coattails of China? Latin America has without doubt been one of the major beneficiaries of recent growth in China. But while exports to China have grown ten-fold over the past five years or so, this overstates the true... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Earthquake unlikely to derail Chilean economy Following the devastating earthquake in Chile on 27th February we have revisited our economic forecasts. But while activity in the hardest hit region of Bío-Bío has been heavily affected, we think... 1st April 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How quickly will Brazil raise interest rates? Last night’s decision to keep Brazilian interest rates unchanged at 8.75% was in line with our forecast but against that of the consensus, which had expected a 50bps hike. Yet the debate over the... 18th March 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Mexican inflation about to take off? A combination of one-off factors means that Mexican inflation is likely to accelerate in the first quarter of this year. But the large amount of spare capacity that has opened up over the past... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: primed for take-off or doomed to disappoint? The outlook for Brazil is good – but not as good as many investors now seem to believe. We expect the economic recovery to continue at a decent pace over the coming months. However, growth will... 13th January 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Three challenges facing emerging markets in 2010 Emerging markets have, on the whole, weathered the crisis in the global economy well. But 2010 will bring a fresh set of challenges. Overall, we think Asia is best placed to prosper, followed by Latin... 11th December 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico: Budget reforms only scratch the surface With policymakers across the globe in agreement on the dangers of early withdrawal of stimulus measures, plans to tighten fiscal policy in Mexico next year are likely to grab some headlines... 18th November 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Strong recovery to give way to a disappointing 2011 A combination of a strong recovery in the US and Asia, the recent pick-up in commodity prices and the resumption of capital inflows should ensure that Latin America’s economy expands at a healthy clip... 20th October 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Bubble, bubble toil and trouble? Concerns that super-loose monetary policy in the West will fuel a bubble in emerging market assets are beginning to mount. While we believe that capital flows to Latin America will ease over the... 2nd October 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What’s really happening to Argentine inflation? An alternative measure of Argentine inflation constructed from provincial level data suggests that inflation is actually running at around 11%, well above the current official INDEC figure of 5.9%. 15th September 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Don’t believe the data, Argentina is in deep recession While official data suggest that GDP grew by 2.6% y/y in Q1, our Argentina Activity Indicator suggests the economy actually contracted at an annual pace of 7.8%. We think GDP will shrink by 8% this... 14th July 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How can Venezuela cope with the fall in oil revenues? The decision of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez to nationalise more than 60 firms last month, including a Spanish bank, is a clear response to the effect that the collapse of oil prices has had on... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Green shoots lack deep roots While there are some welcome signs that the Latin American economy is no longer in free fall, a lasting return to positive growth remains some way off. And with investors apparently pricing in a... 11th May 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Heading for the worst recession since the 1930s We expect Latin America’s GDP to contract by 4% this year, the biggest decline since the Great Depression of the 1930s. What’s more, the region’s recovery will be much slower than those from previous... 11th March 2009 · 1 min read
