Latin America Economics Focus Can Chile get rich off commodities? History indicates that it is very difficult for a country to get rich purely through the extraction of natural resources. In order to meet President Piñera’s target of becoming a developed nation... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia’s credit boom is unsustainable The Colombian credit boom appears to be unsustainable. Lending growth has been excessive, while new loans have been increasingly funded via wholesale foreign funding. We expect tighter macroeconomic... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Brazil's property boom looks like a bubble There are several reasons why we would have expected to have seen a sharp rise in Brazilian house prices over the past five years. But even so the sheer scale of the recent jump in prices is difficult... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What are Argentina's lessons for the euro-zone? Argentina’s experience after the collapse of the peso ten years ago supports the view that Greece, and perhaps other peripheral economies, would ultimately be better off leaving the euro-zone rather... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How exposed are equity markets to investor risk aversion? Whereas all of Latin America’s equity markets would be hit by a renewed bout of investor risk aversion, some appear to be more vulnerable than others. Specifically, Brazilian, Argentine and Mexican... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexican banks can weather the euro-zone storm The close links between Mexican banks and the euro-zone have raised fears that the break-up of the monetary union will trigger a banking crisis in Mexico. But while we would caution against dismissing... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Euro-crisis: how big is the threat of financial contagion for EMs? The economies of Asia and Latin America should be able to weather any financial contagion stemming from Europe’s debt crisis. But the economies of emerging Europe – notably Hungary, Turkey and the... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico: Fiesta or siesta? The looming downturn in the US next year means that Mexican growth will slow in the run-up to July’s presidential elections. The task of raising economic performance therefore looks set to dominate... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How healthy is Brazil's fiscal position? The Brazilian public finances have improved beyond measure following the various debt crises of the 1980s. But government debt remains high by regional standards, and could rise further, perhaps to as... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Sovereign Debt: are the emerging markets immune? Emerging markets are not immune from the deepening debt crisis in the developed world, but most are well-placed to deal with the fallout. China faces a difficult structural transition of its own but... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How sustainable is Argentina's economic model? Argentina’s recent economic performance masks a series of debilitating distortions which threaten to undermine the nation’s future growth prospects. With regime change seemingly unlikely, we believe... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Latin America wasting its commodities windfall? The fact that Latin America is spending its windfall from higher commodity prices is good news for the global economy, but carries significant risks for the region itself. In the near term the big... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Capital flows to emerging markets: an accident waiting to happen? Fears of a widespread bubble in emerging markets look overdone, but there are growing signs that rapid capital inflows are stoking problems in several countries. We think the biggest risks lie in... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Will emerging markets outperform again? The relative valuations of emerging market equities and bonds are no longer as attractive as they have been in the past. But the fears of overheating and hard landings that have held many back so far... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Peru's boom about to be derailed? Peru’s medium-term growth prospects are amongst the best in the region. But in the near term there is a mounting risk of overheating and tighter fiscal policy is needed to cool demand. In this respect... 10th May 2011 · 1 min read
