Latin America Economics Focus After the commodities boom – what next for Latin America? The big falls in global commodity prices are probably behind us but, in the absence of a renewedboom, the growth outlook for much of Latin America will remain depressed. 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: runners and riders in the race to replace Cristina With Cristina Kirchner constitutionally barred from running for a third consecutive term as president of Argentina in October’s elections, hopes of a shift towards more market-friendly policymaking... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Chile set to shift into tightening mode Concerns about the recent strength of inflation in Chile are partly overdone given that it has been elevated by tax hikes which will unwind over the next year. But a relatively buoyant labour market... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Venezuela’s currency crisis: a primer The collapse in oil prices will cause the economic and financial crisis in Venezuela to deepen over the course of this year. In this Focus we answer a series of key questions that we have received... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: at a turning point or heading deeper into the mire? A programme of government austerity will result in modest improvements to Brazil’s budget and current account deficits over the next year but at the expense of extremely weak growth and, in the near... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Banxico can cut interest rates even as the Fed begins to hike We think the prevailing view that close economic ties with the US will force Mexico to raise interest rates if, as expected, the Fed starts to tighten later this year is wrong. Indeed, with lower oil... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Eight questions for 2015 We’ll start 2015 with some good news: having slowed to a five-year low of just 1.5% in 2014, we expect GDP growth in Latin America to accelerate this year. The bad news is that the pick-up is likely... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus The impact of the US shale oil boom on Lat Am There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can we trust Brazil’s fiscal figures? The official data published by the Brazilian authorities give a false impression of the country’s fiscal health. We estimate that various accounting tricks have helped to narrow the reported... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus After the boom... The slowdown in Latin America over the past year is more likely to be the start of a new phase of weaker growth than a temporary blip. We expect regional GDP growth to remain stuck at 2-3% for the... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia: towards a period of softer growth Colombia’s economy has been a rare bright spot in Latin America so far this year but, while we don’t expect growth to collapse, we do expect it to slow over 2015-16. This in turn is likely to mean... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Venezuela on the brink of a balance of payments crisis Rampant inflation, a weakening currency and falling foreign exchange reserves mean that Venezuela has all of the ingredients for a balance of payments crisis. We expect GDP to contract by a cumulative... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil Election Watch: A blueprint for reform There are a number of ways in which the winning candidate in October’s presidential elections could help to turn around Brazil’s struggling economy. But efforts will need to be targeted on structural... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil Election Watch: No evidence of a pre-election giveaway… yet The latest data do not contain much evidence of a pre-election giveaway in Brazil but President Rousseff’s slide in the opinion polls since the start of the year, coupled with a stagnant economy and a... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Pacific Alliance: Trading up? The Pacific Alliance pact has raised hopes of a boom in intra-regional trade, but the high degree of overlap between the export baskets of the member nations makes that unlikely. Nonetheless, the... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Dilma’s first term in six charts Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, looks set to triumph at elections later this year, despite the fact that economic growth during her time in office has been weaker than under any president since... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
