Latin America Economics Focus Can we trust Brazil’s fiscal figures? The official data published by the Brazilian authorities give a false impression of the country’s fiscal health. We estimate that various accounting tricks have helped to narrow the reported... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus After the boom... The slowdown in Latin America over the past year is more likely to be the start of a new phase of weaker growth than a temporary blip. We expect regional GDP growth to remain stuck at 2-3% for the... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia: towards a period of softer growth Colombia’s economy has been a rare bright spot in Latin America so far this year but, while we don’t expect growth to collapse, we do expect it to slow over 2015-16. This in turn is likely to mean... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Venezuela on the brink of a balance of payments crisis Rampant inflation, a weakening currency and falling foreign exchange reserves mean that Venezuela has all of the ingredients for a balance of payments crisis. We expect GDP to contract by a cumulative... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil Election Watch: A blueprint for reform There are a number of ways in which the winning candidate in October’s presidential elections could help to turn around Brazil’s struggling economy. But efforts will need to be targeted on structural... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil Election Watch: No evidence of a pre-election giveaway… yet The latest data do not contain much evidence of a pre-election giveaway in Brazil but President Rousseff’s slide in the opinion polls since the start of the year, coupled with a stagnant economy and a... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Pacific Alliance: Trading up? The Pacific Alliance pact has raised hopes of a boom in intra-regional trade, but the high degree of overlap between the export baskets of the member nations makes that unlikely. Nonetheless, the... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Dilma’s first term in six charts Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, looks set to triumph at elections later this year, despite the fact that economic growth during her time in office has been weaker than under any president since... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Five reasons why we’re still upbeat on Mexico GDP data due to be released tomorrow are likely to show that Mexico grew by just 1.0% y/y in Q4 of last year, and by only 1.2% over 2013 as a whole. Even so, we think that there are still good reasons... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How much do external conditions matter to Latin America? Our new Indicator of Global Conditions suggests that most of the fluctuations in Latin American GDP growth over the past few decades can be explained by changes in the global macroeconomic backdrop... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus End of ‘Kirchnerismo’ could unlock Argentina’s potential With mid-term elections approaching and Cristina Fernàndez’s hold on power seemingly slipping,some are betting on Argentina’s economy to roar back. This is premature – in fact, in the near term,a more... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What might China hold in store for Peru and Chile? With fears of a ‘hard landing’ in China receding, the economic outlook for Peru and Chile has brightened a little in recent months. As it happens, both countries appear fairly well placed to deal with... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Latin America’s hidden vulnerabilities The shift towards tighter monetary policy in the developed world combined with the drop in most commodity prices that we forecast over the next year or so threatens to expose key vulnerabilities in... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Brazil must save to invest The renewed focus of the Brazilian authorities on raising investment suggests a growing acceptance that the slump in growth over the past year or so has been driven in part by structural factors... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What can Uruguay do to bring inflation down? Contrary to popular belief, Uruguay’s stubbornly high inflation rate is partly structural in nature and not simply the result of overheated demand. Bringing inflation down permanently will require far... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Chilean consumer can’t keep driving economic growth Chilean consumer spending is growing at an unsustainable pace and needs to cool if the economy is to avoid storing up problems for the future. We expect to see a gradual moderation in spending this... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
